Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
Just Two More Months
"Don't worry about it. You get paid in rubles, not dollars."
That was Dmitry Peskov's answer to an inquisitive journalist who wondered whether Russians should be worried about their currency, which depreciated sharply mid-week and is on track for a fourth consecutive month of losses against... well, against real money.
Although the currency managed to find its footing on Thursday, it's the weakest since Vladimir Putin's fateful decision to invade his neighbor three years ago this coming Februa
I guess we will find out whether Ukraine is willing to agree to Putin’s terms: never join NATO and the EU, never rearm, and agree to deed its eastern cities and provinces to Russia. There’s a chance they won’t, realizing those are just openers from Putin. That domination of its media, military, trade will follow. That enough of Europe—Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Poland, Britain etc will increase support enough to delay Russia long enough for Russia and its economy to wear down to a much lower pace of attack. If that were to happen— no deal—would the US end arms support, relieve sanctions on Russia anyway? Won’t be a deal if Ukraine, its military and people are willing to fight on without US arms support, especially given Russia’s condition as you have set out, if the US and Europe continue sanctions.
Recent opinion polls in Ukaine suggest that just over 50% of the populace is now willing to ceed territory in exchange for peace. Just a poll subject to all sorts of questioning, but the war ans losses of Ukranian men is not a recipee for a willingness to continue the fight without US and other western aid.
All those lives on both sides lost for nothing.
Your presumption they will lose ‘other western’ aid is not accepted by some who have given lots.
Sad part is they know they will not enjoy peace for long. Vladimir has a strong track record of performing the double cross.
So maybe if they thought they could have peace they would give up territory?
Dead on.
That ruble chart looks like it’s a couple limit downs away from pitchforks…my question is when is zelensky going to try to hit oil infrastructure.
Ukraine’s drone hit so much energy infrastucture it is almost not news anymore. Many refineries have been hit, so much that markets have been affected. The refineries in the east however have not been affected. Ukraine’s drones cannot fly that far.
The ruble chart may force Kremlin’s hand to either turn on Vladimir or lose it with the Russian people. The falling ruble is impossible to propagandize away. Dictators have mostly been deposed over foreign wars that go bad. Ukraine is touted by Vladimir as a domestic war, but the population knows better. Vladimir is aware of the history of dictators deposed by their population because of failed foreign wars.
It seems from my chair that Vladimir’s best hope is Donnie and his select team of misfits. Remains to be seen if Thune can muster one for the country and tune Donnie out.