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Make Stock Returns Real Again
Think you made money in stocks over the last two years? Think again!
Your gains, such as they are or might've been, never were and aren't.
Need proof? No problem. Check out the top pane on the visual below from Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who's happy to disabuse you of the notion that you came out like a bandit across two years of nominally stellar returns for US shares.
"The gains in stocks (and other assets) have been somewhat illusory in real terms," Wilson wrote Monday.
I know what y
We also tried of Wilson, just give us Charlie on full throttle
This is a real chat exchange between an acquaintance and me from Nov 11:
–Did you ever get Savita?
–I’ll check. Yeah. It’s from last week.
–So what is Carl [Quintanilla] talking about?
–Dunno. Research-side stuff is dead. People just want Charlie now.
Yep. He highlights what is actually driving the markets. At least on a day-to-day or week-to-week basis. The flows he references usually overwhelm all others, including buy-backs. (though buy-backs are not about to be reversed if Volatility misbehaves.)
I’m sorta pleased that others are finally waking up to this. Sorta because once something becomes obvious it loses impact in the markets.
We are also tired
But the S&P / hog belly return looks great!