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What To Expect From ‘Trump 2.0’
If you want to know what to expect from a second Donald Trump term, here's a hint: Unbridled influence peddling and government capture on a heretofore unimaginable scale.
I talked about that a bit in "Second Coming," the latest Weekly. Trump's a purely transactional operator, and he'll be surrounded this time around with only the fiercest loyalists, which is to say no one with any sort of scruples.
I don't know what that means for markets, per se. I know what it means for individuals who endea
Hartnett went on to suggest Trump 2.0 may “balance [the] expected inflationary cocktail of tariffs, immigration controls and tax cuts with [a] disinflationary mix of deficit discipline, deregulation and peaceful geopolitics.” Maybe, he mused, there won’t be a meltdown in Treasurys after all.
Deficit discipline with Trump? Hardly
Peaceful geopolitics? Snowball chance in hell
If I were to make a case against higher inflation under Trump, I’d argue it’ll be because the tax cuts will go to the rich (asset inflation may happen, but the average joe won’t feel it), the immigration controls will be harder than he imagines to implement (and his agricultural supporters may balk when they lose access to their labor pool), and he’ll repeal funding from the Inflation Reduction Act and Chips bill to help fund his tax cuts for the rich. I also wouldn’t expect his tariffs to be nearly as large as he was hoping. Don’t be surprised if the Supreme Court cuts him off at the pass on his ability to institute tariffs willy-nilly.
I don’t know if I buy all those arguments, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if Trump’s also just too lazy to do most of what he said he’d do
Trump may be lazy but the people he appoints are not.
I saw Vance said if Europe regulates Musk’s businesses, the US could pull out of NATO. And Musk has reportedly been at Mar-A-Lago every day since the election, conferring with Trump and weighing in on appointments. Expect FSD and Robotaxi to be approved with alacrity, SpaceX to deplace NASA, and I’m sure those are the just the start.