In the early-morning hours of November 4, 2020, when votes were still being tallied in the last US presidential election, I suggested that whatever the final result, the fact that Trump still commanded enough votes to be competitive was “a stark reminder” that his ideology, such as it is, still “resonates loudly with too many Americans.”
I cited an article by The New York Times’s Matt Flegenheimer, who suggested Joe Biden’s unwavering faith in America’s good and decent “soul” might be misplaced.
To the end, which is to say until he dropped out of the 2024 race under pressure from a Democratic leadership aghast at his poor debate performance, Biden insisted that Trumpism in all its various manifestations “Is not who we are” as Americans. Writing on Election Day 2020, Flegenheimer said “an anxious, quarrelsome country is turning a question back at [Biden]: Are you sure?”
Fast forward four years, and it’s pretty clear that in fact, this — Trumpism — is who Americans are. A majority is angry (rightly or not), disaffected (righteously or otherwise), bigoted, xenophobic, jealous, suspicious, paranoid, petty, obnoxious, gullible, tacky, covetous, greedy and so on, separately or in some combination. Trump appeals to our baser instincts and guess what? Human nature likes that. It takes discipline not to succumb to those baser instincts, and discipline isn’t something most people are possessed of, certainly not in abundance.
In the final days of his 2024 campaign, Trump adopted a new slogan: “Trump Will Fix It.” It amounted to a full-on embrace of a stereotypical, tried-and-true populist political ploy: Offer angry voters quick fixes to complex problems. It doesn’t so much matter whether you can articulate a plan. A “concept of a plan” is usually more than sufficient, because if you’re a demagogue, you’re not running on policy anyway, you’re running on passion and, very often, prejudice.
Trump has, from the beginning, peddled easy solutions to complex problems, and this cycle wasn’t any different. America has a lot of problems, and he’s good at amplifying those and making them sound even more vexing than they already are. But on the rare occasions he bothers to articulate solutions, they’re infallibly juvenile and in many cases wholly infeasible. We have a border problem? Well let’s build a giant wall with a moat and stock the moat with alligators. We have too many illegal immigrants? Well let’s just use the military to round them all up and deport them. China doesn’t play by the rules on global trade and commerce? Well let’s just put tariffs on everything we get from them. We have protesters looting stores? Shoot them. And so on.
To a lot of Americans, those sorts of ideas come across as completely ridiculous. Unserious in a way that makes it impossible for half the country to understand how the other half could go in for such an absurdist platform. But, again, this really is who we are, or who a whole helluva lot of us are, anyway.
If you’ve never lived in the deep south, you should try it for two or three years. You’ll come away understanding how it is that nights like the one we’ve just witnessed come about. Back on the island where I lived from 2015 to 2023, one of my neighbors — a kindly late-fiftysomething who had a long, professional career — was genuinely surprised when I informed her that the slaves were brought here on ships from Africa. Another neighbor on the island was an oncologist who secretly didn’t get the COVID vaccines because she was convinced of this or that vaccine conspiracy. I could go on. When you add up all my intermittent stints below the Mason–Dixon, I’ve lived in the deep south for more than half my life. The people are different. Even the highly educated are in many respects backwards.
Of course, it’s not just the south. Just look at the electoral map. It’s a sea of red. And it’s not all about ignorance. There’s a lot of genuine disaffection out there born of what it’s probably fair to describe as a failed neoliberal masterplan which, for all it delivered, ultimately dead-ended in despair for millions upon millions of Americans, including and especially the working class. I’ll quote, at some length, from “The Divide,” published here in March.
There’s a lot to the idea that Democrats, over time, became the party of “Progressive neoliberalism,” where that means cultural radicalism fused with the familiar set of doctrinal economic policies which facilitated deindustrialization, fatally undermined already diminished organized labor and otherwise gutted the American working-class. Mired in an existential malaise, blue-collar workers, and particularly blue-collar whites, succumbed to the epidemic of depression documented so poignantly by Anne Case and Angus Deaton in their 2020 volume Deaths of Despair, a situation made immeasurably worse by the onset of the opioid epidemic in the late 1990s.
Scorned and left for dead in the desolate debris of a domestic manufacturing sector that was systematically dismantled, that portion of the electorate found empathy for their plight was lacking among mainstream Democrats, who seemed beholden to the economic agenda of Silicon Valley and Wall Street. At the same time, the party’s social agenda appeared to revolve increasingly around issues which, at best, were irrelevant to the working-class. At worst, Democrats’ cultural program began to look incongruous with working-class interests and concerns, perhaps even deliberately.
Even Democrats’ efforts to advance racial equality became, in the eyes of some, a caricature — a kind of cause du jour for fashion’s sake that was quickly monetized and exploited by corporates and political opportunists thereby cheapening, and ultimately working at cross-purposes with, the underlying struggle.
Trump isn’t going to fix any of that. And make no mistake: Trump doesn’t care about any of it either. Why would he? It doesn’t affect him, and the notion that Trump’s a selfless patriot is plainly ridiculous. But he does understand a lot of it on some level and he certainly proved adept at leveraging the nation’s reservoir of rage capital for his own gain. This time around, that effort took on an extra sense of urgency to the extent not winning back the presidency could’ve meant going to jail.
Although it’s important to take seriously the socioeconomic factors which contributed to the rise of Trump (and which continue to animate his campaign), we shouldn’t lose sight of the flagrant racist dog whistling, the thinly-veiled authoritarianism and the implicit promise to delay demographic changes and societal shifts in order to restore white, male privilege. Trumpism‘s noxious. And then there’s the isolationism which often feels like a byproduct of his affinity for Vladimir Putin, and Trump’s nostalgic love affair with supply-side economics, the glory days of which were coincident with the height of his fame on the New York gossip circuit.
It’s hard to pin down, by now, what exactly people are voting for when they vote for Trump. But almost invariably, his supporters will tell you they’re voting for America. Coming full circle, they’re not wrong. This, unfortunately, is who we are. Sorry, Joe.
America showed, again, that it’s ready and willing to vote for its baser instincts. In 2024, that meant being prepared to put a convicted felon in the Oval Office rather than a black woman. As The New York Times noted, Trump was set to improve on his 2020 performance in every state that had reported most of their votes by midnight.
We get the leaders we deserve. What does another Trump term say about us?
🙁
Eh, what are you gonna do, you know? It is what it is.
Thanks for staying up late H. Nice summary, agree. Imagine if another Supreme Court Justice steps down, judges he will appoint, and more – structurally devastating. The South has risen. Glad I’m almost 80…
Great article (as always and thank you). I read it while listening to the great David Bowie song – “I’m afraid of Americans”. Apposite.
I’m thinking, humans, we are getting what we deserve.
Yes, Americans do get the government they deserve. The Trump voters who find themselves worse off over the next four years will deserve their misery.
That is, perhaps, the only glimmer of hope here. Trump 2.0 is, very probably, going to be very bad for Main Street. Mad about inflation? Deport labor, tariff imports, force the Fed to cut rates, and see what that does for inflation. Struggling with healthcare? Cut ACA subsidies, Medicare, Medicaid, and see how that does for your healthcare. Resent being low income? Cut corporate taxes, enrich the wealthy, and see how poor you feel then. I could go on. A Red sweep, which seems likely, will be even worse for Main St.
It’s not that the Republicans are the “party of business”. That party is gone. The Republican party of today is all about populism and demagoguery. But the people pulling the strings are in it for themselves – and, lo and behold, most of them are rich or intend to be. And those riches have to come from somewhere.
If there is one thing that the last few election cycles have shown us, it is that the bulk of American voters are self-interested above all else. While ignorant about most of the world, they are keenly aware of disimprovements in their circumstances. Which Trump + Red Wave will, I am confident, deliver in spades.
And, of course, a cult of personality depends on its Personality, Trump is not aging well, to say the least.
So, look forward to 2028. A lot of damage will be done by then. Some of it may not be reversible. But most of us who frequent this site are well-positioned to survive, indeed thrive, Trump or no Trump. When I read about the growing economic struggles of low education households in the South, or whatever, I will struggle to suppress my DGAF reflex, uncharitable as it will be. I’m not feeling much charity toward my fellow Anerican. Screw them.
“The Trump voters who find themselves worse off over the next four years will deserve their misery. “
Tromp will say he tried and the radical left, etc stopped him, it will always be the others fault.
To that end, we seem to be dead set on hitting rock bottom now. There is no intervention coming, we just have to watch the bigots crash and burn.
With Republicans in full control of White House and Congress, most voters won’t buy that. The full-on ideologues will, but the pocketbook voters will look for someone to blame, and all they will see is Red.
That Trump wins, OK, but a red sweep? Wow.
Living in NW Europe, there seems to be an increasingly big divide between the peoples and politics of the US and Europe (although we have our fair share of loonies, they just never get a majority).
It’s about time the EU grows up fast and hard. Militarily, so we can support Ukraine with or without the US (although not excited for some of the larger European countries to have big armies again). And on trade; why should the EU support the US’s foreign politics by aligning on trade policy (e.g. not exporting ASML equipment to China), when the US doesn’t care about the rest of the world and may just slap on universal tariffs on its partners with a tweet. It will be funny to see how that goes. Probably better for the EU to pursue an independent role at the world stage, a bit more like the Emirates, so we can trade with anyone and everyone.
On topic; given the red sweep, I’m extremely interested to hear your thoughts and future analysis on the independence of the Fed. Also on how the quality of the Supreme Court will further deteriorate. Will that judge now stop hiding behind his wife and hang whatever flag he wants?
Re: The Supreme Court. Replace Thomas with Cannon; Alito with Kacsmaryk. It won’t necessarily happen exactly that way, but something the equivalent seems almost certain. In that regard this election is not just about the next four years, but the next forty years.
To quote Ed Koch seems appropriate: “The People have spoken … and they must be punished.”
Now we will get to see how an 80 year old man handles this job.
I guess the court system won’t be burdened with fake elections lawsuits now.
As I would expect the comments below reflect disappointment. This AM I read a sweet piece of sarcasm on a chat board that effectively listed all the worst outcomes this election result will bring. I agreed with all of them and yet, I am optimistic for several reasons.
As to the over-under on lasting all four years, I’ve got the under. I had a front row seat to watch first, my father-in-law, and then, my wife, die from dementia. Trump has it and the results will soon start to turn very bad for him. Reagan was also afflicted for most of his second term and quietly disappeared. There is one bad thing here, next up to the plate will be Vance who will most certainly receive the mantle. My, but won’t that be an adventure.
If trump had to win he did it right … the total “red sweep.” This time around there will be no place to hide. All the blame for all the really stupid mistakes that his crumbling brain will make will all be down to him and his cronies. No Biden to kick around. Under Biden inflation has been beaten back. Soon, as the result of tighter boarder rules, a shrinking labor force, rising tariffs and other related moves, growth will shrink, inflation will most likely return, and Trump’s private army of muscle-heads will have no idea how to clean up his mess. Only a third of the Senate was up for election this year so if the mess starts early, the tide may turn in two years and all the house will be up. When the marks who have been conned in his cult finally wake up and realize they are not “in on it,” the result could be very interesting.
A thought to make everyone secretly grin a bit. Just imagine the big man in his red tie stumping around in the oval office in an adult diaper with a load on while screams continually at all the toadies he has given jobs to. That vision will keep me going for the rest of my short remaining life.
LOL thx Mr Lucky for the levity, much needed today!