See You At The Capitol!

Put on your red hats and sling your rifles, it’s Election Day in the US.

At some point over the next 48 to 72 hours, election officials and pollsters will hopefully be able to discern which candidate managed to secure the necessary number of electors to stake a claim on the Oval Office. That’s the first step in a lengthy process which may include interminable litigation, various sorts of treason and an armed coup. What can you do, right? “Democracy’s messy,” as the saying goes.

Derisive snark permeated “professional” market commentary on Tuesday, when folks who almost surely voted for the losing candidate last time disparaged the alleged absurdity of characterizing this election as somehow more important than any other US presidential election.

You know the joke. It’s the same joke the same people use for FOMC meetings and NFP releases: “This is the most important US election until the next one.” (I get it! I get it! You’re actually saying this election isn’t uniquely important, and your deadpan cadence is meant to complement the understated character of the joke. Well done! That one never gets old! Hard to believe you landed on Wall Street. The door was wide open to standup comedy or creative writing. I can’t wait to hear the same crack on Thursday, just before the November Fed meeting.)

Don’t kid yourself: This election is absolutely unique. One of the candidates is a four-times-indicted, twice-impeached, convicted felon who summoned a Walmart parking lot to stop, or anyway obstruct, the certification process for the last US election. That’s pretty unique. It’s a lot of other adjectives too, but I don’t want to offend anyone already suffering from the acute psychological distress that goes along with knowing you’re complicit it a long-running plot to overthrow American democracy on behalf of a reality TV show host.

There’s not a lot of utility in pounding the table on that, though. Carrying on about the peril posed by Trump is a bit like trying to reason with Florida residents about climate change. Trump supporters and climate deniers will never concede the point, even if the worst-case materializes. A Trump voter who somehow lands in a concentration camp for undesirables during Don Jr.’s second term would no more concede that voting for Trump in 2024 was a bad idea than a Floridian permanently displaced to South Carolina by superstorm Lucifer’s 380-mph winds and 147-foot storm surge would admit something’s amiss with the weather.

That’s the thing about getting duped: People have a very difficult time admitting they were suckered. You see this every day. People go to extraordinary lengths to explain away and rationalize what’s right in front of them. “Yeah, I took Jim-Bob’s advice and rolled up the negative equity in my F-150 into a nine-year, 12% note on that loaded Dodge Ram I wanted, but they threw in an extended warranty and a set of all-weather mats.” Or, “No, Google doesn’t show any yoga studios within 250 square miles of our house, but my wife says she goes to yoga class every Wednesday night from 7:30 to 11:00, so Google must be missing one.” Or, “Yes, I’ve spent $1,000 this week, and when I look in the mirror I see a Rudolph who never got to guide the sleigh and subsequently developed a substance abuse problem, but when eight balls are $250, you’re a fool to pass up the savings.”

I don’t know what to tell you, folks. If you want to pretend this election is just another systems check in the world’s foremost democracy, that Trump’s not a unique candidate, that the stakes aren’t any higher than they would be if he weren’t on the ballot and so on, then that’s your prerogative. I’ll see you in the Ram showroom. And I’ll see your wife at yoga. And I’ll see you in three hours for that fourth ball. And I’ll see you at the Capitol on January 6, 2025, for a peaceful protest.