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US Factory Recession Worsens, Morphs Into Stagflation
Widgets. They don't make 'em like they used to. They don't make 'em where they used to either.
US manufacturing activity contracted again in October, the last of this week's US macro deluge showed.
46.5 on the ISM headline was a miss. Consensus wanted 47.6. Exactly no one expected a good read, but 46.5's pretty rough. In fact, it's the worst since July of 2023 and we've seen some bad readouts over that period.
As the figure reminds you, ISM spent substantially all of the past two years belo
I suspect we will see a bond rally later this week….
Looking at the S&P1500, if we separate the industries into “goods” vs “services”, I get that 40% of market cap is “goods” and 60% is “services”. I’m using “goods” broadly, basically any physical output from machinery to oil, pharmaceuticals to orange juice. Of course many of those goods are not made in the US, while almost all of the services are.