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Bonds Had It Comin’. But Everything Has A Price
How unusual is the post-first Fed cut selloff in bond land?
The answer is: Pretty unusual, but not necessarily unpredictable.
Humans generally base their predictions in whole or in part on experience and historical precedent, which is to say the ordinary. So, out of the ordinary events do tend to be unpredictable.
But "unusual" isn't always synonymous with "unpredictable." I'd argue the backup in bond yields over the past six weeks was fairly easy to see coming. After all, Treasurys headed in
Oh, i thought you were referring to “You Got Another Thing Coming” (Judas Priest) that I sang on in a cover band 14 years ago or so.
With regard to: “Setting aside the debate around Polymarket (i.e., questions in some corners about who, exactly, is driving those odds)”, here is my Friday afternoon conspiracy theory:
Peter Thiel is a major investor in Polymarket and he has a home in New Zealand. He is also one of the founders of Palantir and pro-Trump….. 🙂
Makes sense.
And not just pro-Trump. He is JD Vance’s puppetmaster. He wants to get a return on his investment. Especially if the Big Macs finally send Trump to face St Peter.
Do you have any YouTube videos posted from your Judas Priest days? If so, please link.
I was more into Steely Dan, fyi. 🙂
It was a cover band. Playing other people’s songs = a live jukebox. A pretty mediocre one at that. So not share-worthy!
We did play some ambitious stuff, though no Steely Dan. My next hobby band was much better. Not that it mattered.
Wow that’s an outlier. Bound to correct?