Necessary But Not Sufficient

Good news for a Fed that was (probably) going to cut anyway: Jerome Powell's favorite gauge of US employee compensation rose less than expected in Q3, according to a marquee BLS release on Thursday. The Employment Cost Index printed 0.8% on the headline (0.7855% unrounded), softer than the 0.9% consensus expected. As the figure below shows, the Q3 readout counted as another "coolest since inflation accelerated in earnest" print for a key input in the Fed's decision calculus. The last time this

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