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Analogues, Probable Outcomes And Certain Disputes
If you're curious to know what's in store for markets following next week's epoch-making election in the US, you could consult April 12, 1861, January 6, 2021 or, if you're a glass half-full type, the historical analogues for benchmark US equities and various measures of vol.
My relatively benign societal base case for the country assumes the vast majority of Americans are far too lazy to engage in any sort of protracted conflict. After all, there's a lot of KFC to eat, a lot of NFL to watch, a
The garbage man is riding off into the sunset with his garbage. His orange hue blending in with the sun and the fires of hell.
I agree the Donald will dispute any result that doesn’t show him winning, but I’d be surprised if Roberts, Kavanaugh, or Coney Barrett would get behind anything that went beyond the 2000 Supreme Court ruling. Thomas, Gorsuch, and Alito certainly would.
If it does turn out Kavanaugh or Coney Barrett goes along with that, we once again have RBG to thank for the continuing tradition of politicians (yes, the justices are politicians at this point) overstaying their welcome and wreaking havoc. A 5-4 conservative majority might have kept some of the crazier SC shenanigans in check.
Then again, if Kamala does win, we might have the overturning of Roe v. Wade to thank for the victory. Republicans would be running away with recent elections if they didn’t do that or nominate the clown.