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Sell-By Date
Oil was -- umm -- lower on Monday.
I don't have a model to "prove" this, but it feels as though the bar to clear for geopolitical escalations to drive material and sustainable upside in crude is higher over the years such that only events with "straight-line" (if you will) implications for supply are material. Events like Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Quds-directed attack on Abqaiq and Khurais in September of 2019, for example.
By contrast, the bar to clear for geopolitics to push price
Dear IDF,
We are very disappointed. Could not one teensy missile have been spared for a cracker or terminal or something? Not a thought for the portfolios? Do better.
Signed, Oil Traders.
Wasn’t it Curtis LeMay who suggested – for another regime, time and place – to bomb em back to the stone age? But, oh yeah…seems too many are there already…