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Is Generative AI A True ‘This Time Is Different’ Moment?
I realize -- better than most I'd wager, given how immersed I stay in the market zeitgeist -- that ominous narratives centered around the purported pitfalls of extreme market concentration invariably come across as repetitive and anyway fatuous: What's anyone supposed to do? Not own the leadership? Avoid the AI hyperscalers? Good luck with your old-world widget value stock trading below cash!
Still, anytime a given market metric scores in the 99%ile on a century-long lookback, it's worth harpin
If ChatGPT is the yardstick for measuring the performance of AI then it gets failing grades. I asked ChatGPT a question about Social Security and it gave a very authoritative and wrong response. When I quoted the Social Security statute pointing out that it was wrong it responded by saying, yes, that I was correct and then revised its original answer.
Basically, if you can’t trust the answers it gives what good is it? People are putting wayyyy to much faith in this technology.
Run the Megas through the reverse DCF calculator of your choice. Assume consensus FCF forecasts are correct. Look at the implied terminal, in-perpetuity FCF growth. I see:
MSFT 6.5%
GOOG 4.4%
AAPL 6.7%
AMZN 5.3%
META 7.8%
NVDA 12.6%
TSLA 12.6%