Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
Goldman Officially Raises S&P Target
Goldman's David Kostin has seen enough.
I won't bury the lede: The bank's new official house call on the S&P is 6000 by year-end.
At this point in my "career" as a macro-market documentarian, I no longer see a lot of utility in penning editorials around each and every ostensibly noteworthy update to sell-side SPX house calls, but I'd be derelict in the eyes of some readers not to mention Kostin's updated view.
He now sees the world's benchmark risk asset par excellence summitting the next
Market has to get through Israel-Iran, 3Q earnings, and the election. I think any dips from the former will be bought, and while I expect some of the Megas to underwhelm, overall looking for the hurdle to be vaulted. Election and aftermath . . . need to think that through.
In 2025, the last of the pandemic aid will run out. Government employment, at least, may reverse course. Some election outcomes would be stimulus-unfriendly.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/post-pandemic-america-has-more-teachers-than-it-can-afford
Would you be willing to share? Which Mega do you expect to underperform and why?
I need to review my notes and recent data pts. My recollec from 2Q was that I thought GOOG and MSFT looked likely to report meaningfully slower growth in 2H, with MSFT having the better chance to distract investors with AI-promises while GOOG labors with the overhang of the third and most dangerous antitrust trial.
*Above not investment advice, just HGPT hallucination”
Still, thanks! 🙂
Post election, the potential for ‘austerity’ (if Harris win, ofc) – at least compared to the recent past – ought to be an unpleasant shock to the markets – unless the policies of abundance deliver lots of early dividends…
Harris + swept Congress: fiscal stimulus continues or increases, possible standoff with bond vigilantes if they still exist.
Harris + gridlock Congress: fiscal stimulus cut via endless budget standoffs, continuing resolutions, Treasury default brinksmanship, etc.
Trump + gridlock Congress: unpredictable (and extrajudicial) executive action. Not sure about fiscal stimulus. Inflationary policies and FOMC takeover.
Trump + swept Congress: end of times, banana republic, fascist state, whatever you can imagine, it is possible.
I would give the Democrats more credit than you do but good summary and lol at the last line.