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Producer Prices Warm Up, Jobless Claims Tick Higher In Disagreeable US Data
If hope still floated for a 50bps rate cut from Jerome Powell next week, Thursday's BLS update on wholesale prices appeared to sink it. Sink the hope, I mean. Fortunately for the doves out there, Wall Street Journal "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos published a piece later in the session which indicated the Fed's still undecided. The door's still open to 50 after all.
Still, the data will make a half-point move a hard sell for the Committee's hawks. A day on from a warmer-than-expected read on core
Fiscal policy is inflationary and the government can hire more people when the private business payrolls exhibit weakness. The US is now on track for $2T in deficit spending.
The Fed is on track to assist the underlying fiscal policy situation by keeping everything within a narrow band- not too much inflation, keep the economy from going too low and keep employment at “healthy” levels. No need to drop rates too much right now
Just wait until President Harris adds another $25K for first time home buyers and policies will be even more inflationary.
Or President Trump slaps a 100% tariff on products Americans have never, and don’t even want to, produce domestically because he doesn’t understand even the most basic macro concepts.
Also: It’d be a shame if more people were able to buy homes, right? Better if the poors stay poor and, ideally, homeless, you reckon? I guess they should’ve worked harder. This being a meritocracy and such.
It’s amazing to me how many of you folks — and make no mistake, almost everyone who subscribes here is college educated — are still buying into the bullsh-t of a man whose entire life is one, long grift and one big lie.
I can’t fathom, on some days, how it is that anyone with a post-high school education doesn’t see the con. Would you buy an NFT of the guy dressed up as a cowboy? No? Because that’s ridiculous and it’s a grift? Right. Then why in God’s name would you trust him with the nukes?
H-Man, the Fed whisperer Timiraos made some interesting comments on why 50 is not out of the question. https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-size-861c9600?mod=hp_lead_pos1
Yeah, I saw it. They’re obviously undecided.
Betting odds on 50 were ¢8 before he published that. They were ¢25 within an hour and a half, and the best part is, because those betting markets are so inefficient / slow compared to STIRs, you had forever and a day to make the trade. That site — with the betting odds — is just minting money for anyone who understands Fed smoke signals on the to and fro with this 25/50 seesaw, and the share of people placing bets there who can actually read those smoke signals quickly is very low. It takes that market sometimes hours to catch up to a given catalyst.
What kind of size can you put on? Asking for a friend… 🙂
I mean, as much as you’re probably going to be willing to bet given that you have to do it on-chain, which is to say you’re going to have to get funds into a crypto wallet, convert them to USDC on the Polygon chain and then transfer that USDC to the site’s wallet to get started. The chances of losing any money in that process (i.e., the process of just getting the funds in there to bet) are 0%, but if you’re not used to doing that sort of thing, it can be a bit psychologically daunting to move more than $10k or so around because depending on what wallet and funding source you use, the money will — you know — kinda vanish for a few minutes, particularly when you convert your Ether USDC to Poly USDC. Etc. But if none of that bothers you, you could easily bet $25k with plenty of liquidity to enter and exit, and a lot more than that depending on what outcome you’re betting on (some of the markets are millions deep, which is obviously not deep enough for a hedge fund, but deep enough for individuals).