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Nvidia Has ‘Central Bank-Like Power’ In Modern Markets
Earlier this month, I described the size (and, by extension, the index influence) of Nvidia's daily market-cap swings as "farce."
It was an apt description. By now, a history of the largest single-session value creation bonanzas and biggest one-day wipeouts is just the record of Nvidia ca. 2023/2024.
At various intervals since May of 2023 -- when the company changed the world with what it's probably fair to call the most famous beat and raise in history -- market observers have joked that the
NVDA still 10+% below ATH… I wanted 200 by Christmas for some really epic bonus…
I sold 90% of my Nvidia position at $120. It was really starting to feel “unhinged”. The ride was amazing, but I am trying to be a responsible adult, so I locked in gains (thankfully that position was all in an IRA- I hate paying taxes).
And I still get a little “thrill” from my remaining position.
A few years ago, before anyone cared about NVDA and all this associated junk, I bought the stock for less than $100 and watched it climb to around $550 and stall a bit. I only had 100 shares (pre-split, of course) so I sold and spread the money around. They were still a “chip” company not an “AI” giant. We all make mistakes.
We’ve been long since 2018 – when it was a gaming/crypto/automotive play… but a fairly modest ticket at the time. We re-upped a couple of times along the way but… ‘could have/’should have done more… 😉
From his quoted comment here, I’m not sure Ellison fully understands the contours of the “battle” for technological supremacy here, if he’s lumping China’s intentions (and methods) in with those of the tech titans.
A headline piece in the DigiTimes (Taiwan) this morning expressed astonishment that the second half sales of AI-empowered notebook computers looked to only match (non-AI) sales in the first half. It appears that end-users are not yet seeing the need to pay up for a new notebook simply to add AI capability. America’s favorite company, Apple, may have noticed something like this when they chose to leave iPhone 16 prices flat.
It’ll come, but at what price points and what margins?
Apropos that, yesterday I received an advert from Zoom telling me that they were rolling out enhanced AI transcription etc features. At no extra cost to us. It brought to mind some quotes from the software consultant here that end-user companies will feel compelled to to offer AI products to retain customers. So tech companies will obilge them with datacenter buildouts. Which they can afford as well as write-off when paying taxes.
But stepping back to think about this…. maybe Elison is right. Zoom has been compelled to offer AI options at no cost to their customers because that is what their primary competitor is doing. At first I chuckled and thought of the the old “hand out drugs to kids on elementary school playgrounds to make them customers for life” business strategies. But this is a very uneven fight. How can any smaller also-ran conferencing firm stand a chance in that market?