Are Betting Markets Mispricing The September FOMC Meeting?

The size of next month's rate cut from the Fed depends almost entirely on the August jobs report. I assume that's obvious, but it's worth reiterating all the same. This month's US "growth scare" was brought to you by the Sahm rule, and although subsequent developments on the macro front (e.g., a decline in jobless claims and a solid read on retail sales) shifted the odds back in favor of a 25bps move at the September FOMC, it's important to note that with a fourth consecutive benign CPI report