Ukraine invaded Russia the other day which is — you know — funny.
That’s not to say the war’s funny. War’s never funny. Rather, war’s hell. But it’s funny that two and a half years into Vladimir Putin’s invasion, he’s now being invaded himself. As of mid-week, Ukraine occupied some two-dozen Russian villages in the Kursk region, where more than 100,000 people lived, however briefly, under Ukrainian military rule.
The surprise attack found Volodymyr Zelensky’s army capturing 500 square miles, which is to say Ukraine this month conquered around 0.008% of Russia. Technically speaking, Ukraine’s now engaged in the largest foreign incursion into Russia since Operation Barbarossa. Hopefully for everyone involved, this won’t end in as many casualties.
It wasn’t immediately obvious what Ukraine intended to accomplish, and it still isn’t. One thing Kyiv’s managed to do is embarrass the Kremlin. That’s not nothin’. In a little over a year, Putin’s regime has seen a coup and an invasion, two previously unthinkable developments which threatened Putin’s efforts to shield everyday Russians from the brutal realities of the conflict raging across the border. Although the Kremlin’s managed to engineer a sense of normalcy in Russia, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s march on Moscow, occasional cross-border raids, Ukrainian drone attacks and the assassination of Daria Dugina, all served as reminders that the country is, in fact, at war. Now, Russians living in the Kursk Oblast are seeing the fighting up close.
That’s the psychological angle. Strategically, Kyiv’s probably hoping that, in a rush to retake captured Russian territory, Putin will divert resources from the frontlines in Ukraine, thereby taking some of the pressure off. Most experts were (and still are) concerned that major Russian breakthroughs are just a matter of time despite a surge of Western weapons, munitions and financial assistance. Obviously, there are concerns about the use of Western weapons in the Kursk operation, and more to the point about whether Putin might view the situation as tantamount to NATO invading Russia. (And God knows it’d be a shame if anybody hurt the czar’s feelings.) “The West is fighting us with the hands of the Ukrainians,” he said this week, waxing hysterical at his compound outside of Moscow. “The enemy will certainly get the response it deserves.”
The Ukrainian operation and the specter of additional cross-border offensives “force a decision point on the Kremlin about whether to view the thousand-kilometer-long international border with northeastern Ukraine as a legitimate frontline that Russia must defend instead of a dormant area of the theater as they have treated it since Fall 2022,” The Institute for the Study of War wrote this week, adding that if nothing else, the incursion in Kursk “has allowed Ukrainian forces to at least temporarily seize the battlefield initiative.”
Speaking of the initiative, Donald Trump’s lost it. Along with the plot. Kamala Harris’s ascent to the top of the Democratic ticket and the remarkable energy around her campaign, derailed a “Trump train” which, just a few weeks ago, looked unstoppable. Trump appears genuinely unsure of how to attack Harris, and there’s a sense in which he seems almost out of place without Joe Biden in the race — as though the two men needed each other to avoid becoming anachronisms. America’s policy towards Ukrainian sovereignty won’t change under a Harris administration, or if it does, not in the same way it might under Trump, who’s variously promised to end the war before he’s inaugurated, without saying precisely how. Suffice to say Kyiv’s hoping Harris can keep the momentum which has her ahead (or, at worst, tied) in most swing states.
Meanwhile, Germany issued a warrant for a Ukrainian man in connection with the brazen sabotage of the Nord Stream in September of 2022, an event most observers — myself among them — were quick to blame on Putin. I can’t speak for anyone else, but my intuition regarding Kremlin culpability stemmed mostly from the fact that Putin spent the preceding six months blowing things up in the region after lying repeatedly about the Russian military buildup on the border with Ukraine. Yes, there was something counterintuitive about the notion of Putin blowing up his own pipeline, but look who we’re talking about here: If the choice is between trusting Putin and not, I’ll default to “not” every time. Because that’s the best way to stay alive. If, occasionally, it turns out he’s innocent, I’m not averse to mea culpas.
The German arrest warrant, announced Wednesday by Polish prosecutors, didn’t tell the world much it didn’t already know, or at least not with regard to likely Ukrainian involvement. Early last year, US intelligence hinted to the press at arm’s-length culpability for Kyiv in the blasts which damaged the pipelines. On Wednesday, German media identified — and you really can’t make this up — “Volodymyr Z.,” a professional diver, as the prime suspect. Süddeutsche Zeitung actually got in touch with the man, who said he didn’t have anything to do with the incident, and wasn’t aware of any warrants for his own arrest.
Finally, just to round out the Ukraine-related absurdity, The New York Times reported that Hunter Biden at one point during the Obama administration tried to convince America’s ambassador to Italy to arrange a meeting between Burisma officials and the president of Tuscany, where Burisma was exploring a geothermal project. The official whose job it was to write back to Biden said, “I want to be careful about promising too much.”
1- I support Ukraine in all aspects and wish we’d be more vigorous in helping them… Both parties seemed (10 days ago) to reach exhaustion, which meant a breakthrough could have happened on either side and turn fairly massive quickly. I’m very impressed with what the Ukrainians were able to achieve in Kursk but I’d have thought it safer to try and push along the border, to turn Russian lines in Ukraine. Here, invading and occupying Russian territory is technically a genuine casus belli for the use of nukes. Still, ’till a nuclear strike hit Ukraine, I’m goddam happy for them bloodying Putin’s nose like that.
2- I read on X (yeah, I know) that China acknowledged one of his ship was responsible for the damage on the pipeline but argued it was an accident. It didn’t make sense but do we have a firm debunking of that ‘news’?
3- Trump losing his mind is fucking hilarious. I hope he keeps melting down in public. I loved Jon Steward’s point. The Republicans are mad we switched our old man. To be even handed, we’ll allow them to swap their old man too… 🙂
Regarding allowing them to swap out their old man …. I suppose, but then they might nominate a competent fascist. ?
Does the US have lots of competent fascist who are also popular with at least 30% of the US pop?
I was certainly wrong about Nordstream. My heuristic, a consequence of repeated occurences of Kreml’s behavior, is that the Kreml lies whenever it perceives an advantage in doing so. My expectations were set to that end, but it turns out Occam’s Razor is all that was needed in this case.
The official Ukrainian story so far about the reasons for the invasion of Kursk (and Belgorod) is to institute a buffer zone against Russian bombings (plainly: terrorism) in the border areas. The conquest is certainly also a bag of bargaining chips if it can be held until the war is ended; the reasoning that Russia has occupied a lot of Ukrainian soil, and hence a compromise is needed that lets Putin walk away with some of it, is prevalent in Western circles, completely unreasonable as it is, and also ignorant to the fact rewarding a fascist dictator approaching Hitler’s calibre of violence for his conquest would be a grave long term Western policy error.
A key strategic advantage is the ability of the Ukrainians to better shape the battlefield to their liking and strengths on this new front. The heavy armor received from the West has not exactly excelled at trench drone warfare. The slow grinding mammoth offensive of the Russians in the eastern theatre has effectivly tied down the weaker opposing forces’ options, even though as it was unclear whether the huge Russian losses it takes could be sustained. Finally, a Ukrainian morale boost was sorely needed with support for Zelensky and keeping on fighting dwindling the last year.
Complete aside: today it seems that I can’t copy or spellcheck my own comment text prior to hitting the post button… weird.
It’s funny seeing all the “Let’s Go Brandon” merch rendered pointless.
Anyway, Russia is a federation of a lot of regions that aren’t particularly loyal to Putin’s regime or even the “governing” ethnic Russians. It’d be a real shame if Russia’s military got spread so thin that some of those regions decided they’d like to do their own thing. Or worse, maybe China decides that some of the fresh water resources in southeastern Russia need to be ‘secured.’ Just for safe keeping.
My understanding is Zelenskyy acted unilaterally in a desperate attempt to slow/stop the Russian advance upon Pokrovsk, a major logistical hub for the Donbas region. Without Pokrovsk the Ukraine army logistical supply chain would be cut in have.
It didn’t turn out very well for Napoleon or Hilter, it sure isn’t going to go very well for Zelenskyy either. Just a tragic waste of human lives.
I was just kidding with the Operation Barbarossa reference. Plainly, Ukraine doesn’t believe it can conquer Russia. It sounds like you’re aware of that. It also sounds like you might be pulling for the Russians in this war. If that’s accurate, I’d remind you that Vladimir Putin’s a murderous tyrant who’ll be remembered as the instigator of this debacle, and also for all the other horrible things he’s done including the time he blew up several hundred of his own people to advance his political career, not to mention the irreparable damage he’s done to the country itself, which thanks to him is a pitiful oppressive kleptocracy with an economy smaller than Italy (and Texas).
I don’t support any war at all, as there are only losers on either side of combat; to borrow a very famous quote, “only the dead have seen the end of war.” I just wanted to point out that historically Russia is not very good on offense but they have a brutal defense when it comes to fighting on their own turf; especially during the winter months.
Except… you’ve seen the difference in reaction to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia (thousands, millions of civilians getting into the streets and tens of thousands volunteering) vs Russians in Kursk (crickets and surrenders a-plenty)
As to the idea that winter is going to deter the Ukrainians… whose winter goes to -30C… let’s just say it wouldn’t be a good bet on Putin’s part…
https://newlinesmag.com/spotlight/how-ukraine-caught-putins-forces-off-guard-in-kursk-and-why/ A good article on what has happened so far, and what it provides for Ukraine. Also, I happen to be quoted in it…
If we ever meet, beers are on me: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/aai-reflections-on-a-legendary-24-year-career-at-cia/id1245002955?i=1000656172418
You’re on!
Also, this is a good strategic piece on where our policy is on this war and what opportunities are available: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-vulnerable-western-policy-masks-russian-weakness
I’ve solidified my opinion that the West isn’t sending enough of anything to really help Ukraine fend off Russian advances, based mostly on one very trusted source. Enough has been sent to help Ukraine survive this long, but Putin’s grinding strategy to wage a war of attrition will likely work, some day and after disastrous losses for the Russian army, but nonetheless someday in the next couple of years. Europe needs to step up and lord knows the US certainly could.
Putin strategy was a lightning strike.
If the tactic of a lightning strike was to have an occupation, which is his procedure, a war of attrition is something new to his playbook.
Nobody fought any of the last wars because they no longer exist.
Ukraine may be on the road to guerilla warfare or testing the Russian population for such inclinations.
Poke a bear with a stick and a stick bearer probably will lose. Whole bunch of sticks and the bear probably loses.