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Nvidia Gets Weird
On several occasions this year, I suggested we may be approaching a kind of market singularity wherein the US mega-caps regularly swing between quarter trillion-dollar single-session gains and losses, rendering the rest of the market irrelevant.
"The larger the mega-caps get, the more pronounced [the moves] are becoming, not necessarily in percentage terms, but in market-cap terms," I wrote three months ago, in the course of noting that if it gets to the point where the mega-caps routinely add
I agree, it’s troubling. I’m mostly out of the market while my career personal finances are collapsing — and it’s looking like the last of my investment accounts are going to be gone soon anyway to put food on the table — but if not, I wouldn’t touch this with a 10 foot pole. Like a lot of geeks, I started out in crypto, and eventually moved to the conventional market because I came to believe it was gambling, mostly because it behaved like this, divorced from any fundamentals. At this point, with things gyrating like this, any outlook essentially comes down to faith. And faith is a word for bullishness without certainty (in all areas, not Justin finance). And we know what the market eventually does with uncertainty.
Part of my evolution as a trader was to learn not to FOMO, and even if I was in the market right now, it might be a little tough to watch all this money being made by people who timed it perfectly, but I think I would mostly be content to sit on the sidelines here… I just don’t have enough faith in my own ability to analyze business fundamentals to say that I’d feel good about riding this out. I don’t even know myself if fundamentals support even the bottom of the range it’s swinging around in. So I’d need a lot more information from someone whose insight I trusted a whole lot to get involved with this. Maybe I’d have a little tiny bit of YOLO money in NVDA… No more than I would put into crypto.
YMMV, especially if you’re a more astute market reader or business analyst than I am.