Looking for more evidence that incorrigible American consumers might’ve finally exhausted the last of their pandemic savings buffers?
That’s supposed to be a rhetorical question. The implied answer’s “Yes! Yes, of course I’m looking for more such evidence!”
In reality, you probably don’t care. And if you do, you could always just consult retail sales (which disappointed a second month in the last release) or measures of consumer sentiment (which are generally subdued, the University of Michigan gauge’s newfound penchant for upward revisions notwithstanding).
But, for those of you who’ll consume every, single data point I’m inclined to feed you, it’s worth noting that credit card debt — revolving credit — rebounded sharply after falling for the first time in three years.
As the figure shows, card balances rose more than $7 billion in May, according to just-released Fed data.
In April, that series showed an $890 million decline, the first drop since inflation accelerated in the spring of 2021. Recall that aggregate nominal spending (i.e., the retail sales series) likewise fell in April.
The narrative around the rebound in credit card balances is easy enough to parrot: Stretched consumers, after pulling back in April, pulled out the cards in May to make purchases. Or to make ends meet. Whichever the case may be. The data’s not adjusted for inflation, but price growth cooled considerably in May.
Of course, it’s impossible to say for sure what’s behind a given month’s ebb and flow. And the series is typically revised. One thing we can say is that price increases go a long way towards explaining the virtually uninterrupted streak of monthly increases since mid-2021. Now, price increases are moderating, so it’ll be interesting to see if card balances keep climbing.
As of this week’s update, the revolving credit series suggests total US credit card debt now stands at $1.345 trillion, a new record. The average card rate’s loitering around 22%. What could go wrong?


Just a hunch, but I’m guessing the people owing $1.35T in credit card debt has minimal overlap with the owners of the $6.2T in money market funds.
*have
H-Man, keep an eye bankruptcy filings business and non-business (individuals) which have been moving up. Seehttps://www.uscourts.gov/news/2024/04/25/bankruptcies-rise-16-percent-over-previous-year