Long before Joe Biden and Donald Trump officially committed to reprising their roles for a superfluous sequel to the campy horror movie that was the 2020 US presidential election, I called a Biden-Trump rematch “a popularity contest for the unpopular.”
Polling consistently underscored that characterization. For example, as of the 2022 midterms, just 6% of voters were enthusiastic about the prospect of a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024. In April 0f 2023, an NBC poll suggested 70% of Americans believed Biden shouldn’t seek a second term and 60% said Trump, newly-indicted, should drop out of the race. I could go on. And on. And on.
Of course, all such polling’s skewed by the same hopeless partisanship that bedevils every other attempt to measure public opinion in America, but that gets to the heart of the issue: Trump (proudly, by design) and Biden (begrudgingly, by circumstance) are synonymous with the country’s irretrievably divisive politics in the 2020s.
Trump has his acolytes. Millions of them. It’s a cult. They’d follow Trump off a cliff and in many respects they already have. They’re certainly excited about a 2024 rematch — because their self-appointed messiah’s on the ballot. Again, again.
But for a majority of Americans, even those with an affinity for one of the two men, this is, like Biden and Trump themselves, getting a little old. It’s a prosecutorial grudge match. To call it “personal” would be to materially understate the case. November 5 feels like the predetermined date for the onset of civil war, and Americans feel like they’re being drafted. Democracy’s famously “hard,” and occasionally people do have to die to preserve it, but it’s not supposed to be miserable and terrifying all the time. If it is, what’s the point?
It’s unfortunate, to put it mildly, that Biden, Trump, the Democratic party machinery and the GOP, refuse to acknowledge the distinct possibility that if you could somehow cut through the animosity and get a “clean” read on what Americans “really” want, voters would rather not be railroaded into a binary choice between allegedly existential alternatives.
Again, public opinion polling’s muddled hopelessly by partisanship. Put as a question: Does it really make sense to say, for example, that only 10% of Americans want a Biden-Trump rematch when 90% of Republicans want Trump as their candidate and 75% of Democrats want Biden (pre-debate anyway)? Probably not.
But given how the system’s set up — it’s an irremovable, in some sense tyrannical, duopoly — it’s hard to know what people really want. It’s not really a free choice. It’s a free selection. When there’s a lot to select from, a choice and a selection are more or less the same thing. When the selection’s binary, as it generally is in American politics, it’s not really a choice.
Third party candidates can’t win in America. The system allows it in theory, but not in practice. So, a vote for someone other than a major party candidate is tantamount to a wasted vote. That’s a terrible psychological burden to impose on the electorate. Third party candidates face a similarly vexing quandary: They know they can’t win and any votes they do get will almost invariably disadvantage one major party candidate more than the other one. So, to run is to impose a handicap on one of the major party candidates. If that candidate’s the major party candidate you’d prefer, you probably won’t run.
I don’t know what that is, but it’s not democracy. Particularly considering that in most cases, the major party candidates themselves reflect opaque internal power dynamics more than they do the popular will. Trump at least broke that mold, but I’d gently suggest that it should be easier for outsiders to break through assuming, of course, that their platform resonates with voters. That is: You shouldn’t have to commandeer one of the major parties by sheer force (as Trump did with the GOP) to have a shot at being that party’s candidate. There should be a process for unconventional candidates to break through that doesn’t entail conquest, coercion and, ultimately in the case of Trump and the GOP, the implicit threat of violence. Otherwise, the only unconventional candidates you’re ever going to get will be demagogues and aspiring strongmen(women).
In the two days since Biden’s disastrous debate performance, Democrats and the president’s advisors circled the wagons instead of canvassing for a replacement, making it abundantly clear that failing a scenario in which Biden — God forbid — physically collapses at a campaign event, he’ll remain at the top of the ticket. That, despite what’s now self-evident to everyone in America: Biden will be wholly incapable of carrying out the duties of the presidency by the end of a hypothetical second term.
“Bad debates happen,” Barack Obama said, defending his dear friend. “This election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself.”
Yes. But also no. For one thing, you could argue Biden’s being selfish by refusing even to consider stepping aside.
More importantly, what’s the message to the American people in all this? What should voters think about the major parties when one’s willing to run a convicted felon who tried to obstruct the peaceful transfer of power and the other’s willing to run a man who’s twilighting in full view of the public? What kind of choice is that?
Small wonder democracy’s mired in a bear market.
With all the debate noise, we tend to forget that SCOTUS destroyed the US this week. Legalizing bribery, dismantling regulation and kneecapping the SEC. That’s more significant than two old men making no sense for an hour, and is a true bear market for a democracy.
SCOTUS is a lost cause. I’ve been saying that for going on four years. The institution itself’s absurd. Lifetime tenures for a panel of robed jurists, some of whom rule based in part on their religious beliefs and all of whom pledge some kind of allegiance to a 250-year old document written by men who would’ve enslaved Barack Obama and worshipped a time traveler with an iPhone as a wizard-god (or burned her at the stake as a witch if she was a woman).
You forgot “reducing insurrection to criminal trespass.”
These were ‘good people’ who were wronged by Nancy Pelosi’s continued insistence on breathing air.
Well, yes. The whole country agrees on that. They’re all coming together on it. It’s beautiful, it’s a beautiful thing. There’s more agreement on that than any other issue in history. Somebody just gave me that stat. I don’t know if I agree with it, I would never say that, but that’s what they’re telling me.
SCOTUS became completely illegitimate as soon as the GOP-corrupted Senate rushed through the theocracy-champion ACB after denying Garland even a hearing. But even that is less significant than (while being a manifestation of) the MAGA march toward institution of the 4th Reich. As said on late-night, time to call your realtor down under (or your favorite real banana republic…
This is the divide we have all known existed for some time, yet thought that someone else was going to do the heavy lifting to solve it. One common thread I have found is a profound laziness for governance thought.
What resonates to me is the paraphrased statement below which has been borrowed from others wiser than me.
“The price you pay by not paying attention to politics is to be governed by evil men.”
This seems more true today than ever.
What is the big deal if Biden dies in office? This has happened before an in some cases the Vice President improved on presidential leadership. To me Biden’s age and feeble delivery is immaterial, he is a good man by any measure. He is also relatable as a human.
He made those points very well in his Friday afternoon speech. If you haven’t seen it, I’d look it up on YouTube, it’s worth a watch. I personally disagree with him in a lot of ways, but in Friday’s speech he clearly underscored your last points very effectively, gave a very strong demonstration that he’s the only one in the race even qualified to be a candidate, a performance that if he’d done it Thursday night would’ve trounced Trump decisively.
After writing above I had the thought that this ‘poor performance’ is not some masterstroke in political strategizing. If he subsequently comes on strong and swinging, like he did in the State of the Union, then it will be indication to me that this is a strategy. Engagement is certainly higher for those opposed to a future dealing with the effects of project 2025. Which for me is more of a long term threat than the Trump clan.
Hmmmmm. My gut says what I watched Thursday night wasn’t an intentional act. But who knows? I don’t think Thursday was a decisive defeat, either, though. Peoples’ memory is incredibly short during campaign season. If he scores a knock out any time in the next few months this will be completely forgotten, like it’s no worse than the Access Hollywood tape. Or the posting a video of a man shouting “white power” in a presidential Twitter account. Or the mocking a disabled reporter. Or the birtherism. Or the calling for the executions of the central park five. (OK, on consideration, Trump has the benefit of gradually winnowing his followers down to those with the least critical thinking skills possible. But, the point stands, people can overlook big things.)
“A good man by any measure” really?! Maybe in the world of US politics he can be considered one of the good guys, maybe. But I can think of many measure by which he is not a good man, quite frankly, most in politics aren’t, and those that are, usually aren’t after a few more years.
I’ll tell you what I’m really concerned about now. Look at Biden’s speech Friday afternoon, what, 16 hours after that debate? Leaving aside whether some of his facts and figures were really honest, in terms of principles, and especially in terms of coming down properly on Trump, that was the debate performance that he needed to give the night before. It was such a tremendous difference that it’s disconcerting, It was night and day. And now I read in AP news high-ranking Democrats who work with him saying that he’s great between 10 AM and 4 PM, and then falls off in the evenings, and I have to ask myself, is this guy “sunsetting”? It’s a common early warning sign of dementia for people to be highly functional during the daytime and then start to lose it towards the evening. I realize that’s a leap to make, but the difference between the two performances is so stark that it’s downright strange. Even before that horrific thought struck me, the fact that he is obviously still capable of showing tremendous clarity and strong leadership qualities at some points doesn’t make up for the fact that we now see that at least at some points, he’s clearly not. What if at some point during some crisis, we need Friday Speech Biden, and Thursday Debate Biden shows up?
BTW if you enjoy Jon Stewart’s skill at hyperbole and facial expressions, his piece on the debate was really good. After lamenting the same thing we all are (“This CAN’T be REAL!!”) he spends a moment towards the end saying, “Hey, I wonder what’s up with Kennedy?” Then he pretends to take a call, saying, “oh… Vaccines… his vice president… donated to… OK, I see.” The entire clip is pretty funny.
Yeah, I was “great” almost 24 hours a day for nearly two decades as an ultra-high-functioning alcoholic. “Being drunk” never caught up to me. Pancreatitis (which I mistook for panic attacks) eventually did, though. Point being, even if you’re great all the time, an underlying problem is an underlying problem. Mine was fixable. I just had to stop drinking. Biden’s isn’t. He can’t stop aging.
Well, that’s not necessarily true, we could set up some kind of a “brain in a jar” situation where we flip the switch to turn him on when we need him and the rest of the time he just kind of sits in a static fluid that would basically arrest any further senescence. Used judiciously, we could get another 12 or 15 years out of him that way.
Don’t believe your Lyin’ Eyes. “Bad debate nights happen.”
If they really want to convince anybody, they should call it “malarkey”. Several times.
I regularly canvass for Mike Levin CA Congressional Representative 49th District. Yesterday I knocked on 55 doors, 23 answered. They were registered Democrat or Decline to State (independent). Most were mildly concerned, still committed to Biden, one lady rolled her eyes and said leave. Two told me they had Republicans change to Biden based on too many Trump lies. It was not as bad a day as I expected, but this is CA. I will knock on about 100 doors today, encourage staying positive – get out and vote! I can’t sit on my hands and complain, emotionally I feel so much better engaged, working with like minded people. Wish me luck of you agree….
My entirely anecdotal experience, based on my circle of friends, is that there are a number of reasonable Republicans who despise Trump as much as any reasonable person does. I certainly have friends on the left who think that all Republicans are by definition either stupid, crazy, or evil, and they’re not, the reasonable ones I lnow—the ones whose broad social and economic goals & values actually resemble most liberals’, they just have different opinions on how best to get there—just don’t get a lot of press. There’s no way to know how many of them are out there, bit I suspect there may be quite a few.
And, kind of an illustrative related point: I even have this one childhood friend who grew up to be a very far-right-wing, Trump-loving extremist, at least when I last spoke to him a number of years ago now. He was openly racist, and he openly liked Trump for that. (And yes, it is incredible what the shared bond of childhood friendship can survive… to a point…) But we were talking at one point, maybe six or eight years ago, and it came out that in 2008 he voted for Obama. I was incredulous. I asked him, “how in the world did YOU wind up voting for Obama?” He said, very matter-of-factly, “Sarah Palin. She was too crazy. We couldn’t let her anywhere near the White House.” (before anyone thinks that might be covert misogyny: if it had been because she was a woman, this guy would’ve felt no shame at all in saying that outright.) So even some the furthest hard-right extremists do sometimes still have limits to how much craziness they’ll put up with.
Oh, and, I wish you luck!
as far as I’m concerned the Day the Music died (Democracy) was when the Supreme Court voted 5-4 to nullify Florida’s right to determine the winner of its 2000 presidential election, allowing a popular vote minority elected president in, which allowed appointment control of the US Supreme Court…fast forward to 2016 when another popular vote loser became president and put the US (and civilized world) decline on steroids…lately I have been thinking that perhaps Gerald R. Ford’s pardon of Nixon was another possible moment that set the US on course for its inevitable decline…and here we are…
I pin it on the day that a young Newt Gingrich realized that instead of addressing his fellow members of Congress, he should be using quiet sessions to play to those new C-SPAN cameras.
You have both highlighted major events in the decline of American democracy.
Biden is about to pull a Ruth Bader Ginsburg (RBG) and tank his legacy. No one will remember that he stepped up to save America once, when being stubborn, and hanging on too long, sinks the country back into chaos.
Palace Intrigue Chaos by Biden pales in comparison to chaos caused by threatened MAGA induced civil war.
Lucky us, we’re going to get both.
In a CNN interview, when Biden was asked why he insists he is the only Democrat who can defeat Trump, Biden shot back: “Because I am the most qualified person in this country to be president of the United States and finish the job I started.”
I was angered when I first heard that answer. In the context of his debate swan dive/bellyflop that delusion has become downright scary.
Let’s see if the Democratic establishment can coax or force him to step asaide, in marked contrat to the cowardice across the aisle when it comes to DJT.
I’m with you on that, and beginning to feel even more strongly about it as the Democrats circle wagons and insist the Thursday night’s performance doesn’t matter. The problem is, the Democrat leadership, despite the other side’s frequent characterization of them as “radicals“, are actually quite conservative. They stick with their safe and familiar playbook long after the time has come to be responsive to changing circumstances. The reason for this, I think, is because within their own party, it works… a number of functionaries have managed to rise very high within the ranks by sticking to a 20 or 30 year old formula. If you think about it, it’s kind of amazing that that nominal “conservatives” were the first to en masse radically reshape their party away from the neocon mold after, in my estimate, Reagan’s nine terms in office. Forming a cult of personality around a feces-flinging orangutan was obviously the stupidest possible way to go about that, but the fact is, they did it. Meanwhile Democrats are still, even just this week, throwing around as potential presidential candidates the names of people who appear to have been cultured in a lab from cells extracted from Gore campaign staffers.
For media companies this election season has been a wonderful experience. More drama for longer. Translates to more eyeballs forevermore as people become more and more addicted to the slightest morsel of ‘news’.
Fatigue is bound to set it at some point. I know I started getting more selective when I realized how many articles I was reading the sole point of which was basically “here’s what [3rd- or 4th-tier talking head name, e.g. George Conway] thinks might happen because of [minor news event]!”
The heritage foundation is currently exploring ways to force Biden to remain on the ballot, and also deny replacing him w/ another candidate, in all 50 states. Each state has different rules/deadlines for ballot inclusion/exclusion. Democrats can run another candidate, but procedurally, republicans will make it difficult, and in some states maybe impossible to do so.
I can’t fathom the Heritage foundation from think tank to active participant in the destruction of the American Experiment through their 2025 initiative. I had thought they were dedicated to improving our lot not destroying it. Or is that a quaint thought that went away the day the Republican party died?
Eh, I think they’re tilting at windmills. I’m not a legal expert, but from what I’ve read, I think of parties nominating processes that parties business there’s not really much anybody outside that party can do about it. This is probably just bluster from HF, They’re doing what is now the Republican party’s highest purpose: trolling the left.
Sorry, that was, “I think each party’s nominating process is that party’s business, and…”. Damn Siri, trying to make me sound like Joe Biden! I sure wish this comment section had an edit or delete function for submitted comments…
True, the party can nominate anyone they choose (assuming the delegates at the convention agree on someone other than Biden), but my point was that the states’ laws govern elections, and there are rules, outside political parties’ immediate control, that dictate who can be on, and in this case, who cannot be removed, from the ballot. I am not 100% sure some states would remove Biden’s name from the ballot. In that case, Biden would receive a fair amount of votes, with Trump being the beneficiary.
Oh, I see. Yeah, that’s a… I don’t wanna put too fine a point on it… distressing thought. Especially they’ve shown as so far there’s no limit to how badly they’re willing to undermine the smooth functioning of our nation in order to try to get their way. One would hope that some voice of reason somewhere in their party would look at something like that and say “uh, we can do this, but I think it might end up destroying the country permanently, maybe we shouldn’t?” There’s been a few lone Republican voices risking ostracization by still showing that kind of sanity here and there at moments. No more than a tiny handful, though… it’s a scary thought.
As usual, the next steps will be based on “the money”. I can’t even begin to really understand the super pacs, where their money comes from and how it can and cannot be used, including restrictions on transferring it to other candidates. However, “the money” is a key part of where the Democrats go from here.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/sorry-democrats-biden-is-your-man-presidential-debate-2146aaa4?st=dts4mnurutkzcwd&reflink=article_copyURL_share