US Factory Surveys Diverge
The marquee gauge of US factory activity slipped further into contraction territory in May, the first of this week's top-tier macro releases showed.
At 48.7, ISM manufacturing missed estimates (consensus was 49.5), validating the notion that March's fleeting push above the 50 demarcation line separating expansion from contraction was a false dawn.
May's print was the 18th contraction-territory headline in 19 releases. Notably, the new orders gauge fell to 45.4, weak indeed. "Demand remains elu
Bonds and dollar favor ISM…….for now
Monthly ticks in these indicators have little information value and often diverge, but their moving averages do tell a more consistent story.
Simple logic based on real facts always make their own arguments. Thanks, once again. Americans want someone to tell them how to be Lake Woebegone investors (all making above average returns) with no effort and no risk. They will listen to anyone they think knows the secret. My old mentor used to tell us that if you think someone is telling you a wonderful secret you must assume you are the last person to hear it and the easy gains are already gone. All that will be left is a fine selection of bags stuffed with snipes.
H I like you even though you dump on me as a ‘technician’ big time. I am an ABD doing model building – wildebeest population cycles, NY offtrack-betting risk control, and heart rhythms. Banks paid, and I saved one, but it took me to 1980 to go alone. The asses kicked me, I kicked back. I was number 8 to 10th in 2008. I sold in Jan 2011 and my buddies killed it by late 2013. Started a biotech and the street took 97% of my royalties, so at 81 I am still working with. Life’s a bastard (many bastards) but thr data your talking about is the bark on the tree. Minsky, Schumpeter, Keynes, me – Those are the ones to follow.
John your last two sentences there remind me quite a lot of what I tell people when I go out to restaurants: “Life’s a bitch (many bitches) but the fried artichokes you’re eating are the wind in the dandelions. Aristotle, Marcus Aurelius, Jesus of Nazareth, Thomas Aquinas and me – those are the ones to follow.”
Thomas Aquinas, really? Tsk. Please consider Russell’s special pleading critique…
“The only saving grace is that life itself’s a waste of time”….
I love what the new Wim Wenders film, “Perfect Days” says about how to live life.