Presidenta!

16 thoughts on “Presidenta!”

1. If the drug cartels were behind at least 36 killings of political candidates in Mexico, it doesn’t seem a stretch that they would do the same across the border to political candidates that are “anti-cartel”.
   Also, from what I have read, one of the significant contributors to the economic improvement for ordinary Mexicans is relatives who migrate to the US, take a job, and send money back home to relatives still in Mexico.
   If Trump gets elected- he has said he will be tough on immigration and on drugs- which are both policies that are not going to be received well by various groups in Mexico.
   Going to be interesting.

   1. And, as much as Trump says about immigration, he and Biden spew much the same rhetoric and share much in their positions. The thing is, unemployment is at historical lows. There are job openings all over. Our birth rates are below replacement and to have growth we need immigrants to do the jobs other aren’t willing or available to do. Lots of noise but reality tells us otherwise.

      1. Sorry, off-topic, but my ears were burning. Like many extremely skilled and experienced professionals right now, I’ve been out of work for fourteen months now, with dwindling prospects and hope of survival, and ballooning existential fear and depression. Where are these job openings? Because nobody I’ve spoken to in the last year or so can seem to find them, and that includes dozens of recruiters.

         Here’s something to read, a single representative sample, one thread in one forum, picked because it happens to be the page I was reading right before I came here to catch up on HR. This one page is entirely typical of conversations I’ve seen every day for a long time across multiple employment-related sites. You can find these conversations every day now. This is a commonly seen norm, not an outlier. Does this sound like the kind of conversations you hear every day in a country with “job openings all over”? https://www.reddit.com/r/Layoffs/comments/1d5eqxb/laid_off_last_year/

         “I got laid off last year. Now it’s been more than a year and still Nothing.”
         “You’re not alone. 25 years experience, 3 degrees from top tier schools, 16 months unemployed”
         “Similar stats as you. 24 months unemployed. ”
         “Same stats here as well. Over 25 years of experience, in my 14th month of unemployment.”
         “You’re my twin OP. 14 months here, still nothing. 9 yrs of exp ”
         “You are not alone , 18+ years post technical graduate degree + mba in the same situation”
         “164 working days unemployed here. ”
         “Been 1+ year for me too. ”
         “Going on 14 months . Solidarity ! ”
         “been out of work since January”

         Meanwhile, on the job boards that tell you the number, job openings sometimes get 250 applicants for a single position. One recruiter recently told me she got over 1000.

         So, please. Where are there “job openings all over”? A lot of us could really use that information.

         Sorry to be prickly, but if it’s not obvious, I, like a lot of people, am outright desperate! Where are these job openings?

         1. The market for engineers designing and building hardware is very tight right now. Check defense contractors, they’re needing folks from all disciplines.

            May you find work you enjoy, fellow human.

   2. El Naranja hasn’t heard the opening bid from the cartels yet. He’s morally flexible. I’m sure they can come to an arrangement.

   3. One can make the opposite point.

      The mafia would love to have bribable politicians and administrators in the upper echelons of US power. A felon in the White House is the ultimate prize for Mexican cartels.

      One could argue it’s in their interest to help him. I wouldn’t be surprised if cartels are behind the latest bump in fundraising for the felon.

2. This was not on my radar screen. Mexico index is -10% on this election. Investors surely were expecting the win?

   1. Yes, but not the magnitude of the win. There is fear that she will take it as a mandate to expand benefits to the lower 80%.

      1. Ah so.

         Seems could be good for consumer goods and services names catering to that 80%.

         1. Well, for starters they tore apart FMX today. Maybe that trade was already reflected during AMLO’s term?

            1. I exited FMX some months ago. Interested in re-entering it now. ETF dynamics pulling down everything, likely some opportunities created.

            2. FMX popped back, but Walmex also interesting.

            3. Very long-term holder of that. Usually a steady as she goes stock.

            4. Me too. WMT’s report suggested WMMVY’s quarter wouldn’t be a signif beat, so the latter was soft, but I don’t mind. If Presidenta sends money to the low/middle class, it should be good for WMMVY (and FMX, and MELI, and probably other names I don’t know). If she doesn’t, then EWW comes back and drags the names with it. WMMVY is usually a full sized position for me, today I started making it a 1.5X position. FMX is harder for me to figure out, expansion to Europe and in ?Columbia? (anyway some LatAm country I’m dubious about) confuse me, the stock was coming in well before the election, plus the election dip lasted a day, so need to think harder before re-entering FMX in size. I still have some stub positions in FMX (sort of “keeping it on the screen” size positions).

               I screen the S&P 1500 and score the names as “momentum” and “inflection”. Inflection criteria are as you’d expect – big upside to highs, closer to lows, low RSI, positive RSI change, positive 1M or 3M revisions, positive price return in L1M or L3M. Right now I’m only shopping in the inflection category and there is plenty to shop – 14% of the S&P1500 passes my threshold score for infection, even if most of them look like frogs on a closer look. Most of the momentum category looks seriously overvalued.

3. Worth spending more time on Mexico. Now our largest trading partner surpassing China. And the 12th largest economy exceeding S Korea.

4. The margin of victory in Mexico was too large. The margin in India is too low. I guess investors demand perfection, unless AI is mentioned.