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US Jobs Report, ECB Rate Cut Take Center Stage
It's a big week for macro.
Fed officials and traders "flummoxed" by the US economy's Energizer bunny act will get a bevy of updates in the days ahead, including May payrolls.
The US likely added 190,000 jobs last month, economists reckon. That'd count as a pickup from the last report which, you're reminded, saw the headline undershoot.
A consensus print would bring the three-month moving average down to 226,000, the lowest of 2024 but still too brisk -- arguably -- to be consistent with the
The macro feels more settled into a higher-for-longer groove, bounded by Powell’s near-promise of no rate hikes and the near-unanimous FOMC view that much more is needed to trigger rate cuts. It seems unlikely that AHE, JOLTS, or ISM will be so strong either way to break the near-term policy trajectory from this channel.
The micro (stock and sector) is getting even more interesting, as AI-themed names diverge from each other, the Mega 7 break up Fab Four style, estimates are broadly revised up, and a slowing economy looks to begin exposing the nude swimmers.