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Renewed Soft Landing Faith May Be Misplaced, Kolanovic Says
Markets are "settling back into the soft landing narrative," JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic said Monday.
To the extent that's indicative of macro-policy complacency on the part of investors, it's premature and could be misguided, the bank suggested.
Equities are coming off a third straight week of gains (the selloff was canceled when no one RSVP'd), and the US rates complex has calmed down considerably.
Yields are well off the highs and pricing for the Fed trajectory shows ~43bps
You can make a market out of seven stocks, but you can’t make an economy out of seven companies.
I’m waiting for eyeballs to shift from the one to the other.
There is a confounder for 1Q, BMY’s mammoth $11.4BN loss, well more than 100% of which is due to a humungous acquisition-related IPRD charge.
I am reading that, excluding that charge, the S&P 500’s 1Q earnings growth rate would be +8.3% rather than +5.3%.
I’d guess, but haven’t confirmed, that the S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 would have a decently positive 1Q earnings growth ex-BMY.