Americans’ near-term inflation expectations are drifting higher again.

That’s not the best news. Inflation’s in part a psychological phenomenon. If you think stuff’s likely to be more expensive tomorrow, you’ll be inclined to buy stuff today (assuming you have the wherewithal) and that pull-forward effect can push up prices, particularly if the economy’s supply constrained.

Inflation expectations rose to 3.3% at the 12-month point in the April vintage of the New York Fed’s consumer survey, released on the eve of PPI and CPI updates covering the same month. That was the highest since November, and came on the heels of a similar uptick on the University of Michigan’s series for May. The increase was most pronounced among those without a college degree and those making less than $50,000.

Expectations at the three-year horizon fell slightly after rising sharply over the prior two months, while those at the five-year point increased.

The irony with the NY Fed poll is always the same: The FOMC doesn’t actually care all that much about these series despite it being “their” data. All the same, they’d obviously prefer good news to bad.

The other highlight from the April survey was an uptick in consumers’ outlook for home prices. That series likewise showed expectations for 3.3% growth over the next year.

That was the highest reading since July of 2022, right around the time prices peaked. A correction ensued, but it proved shallow and fleeting.

Home prices in America are back to all-time highs in many locales and the typical monthly housing payment continues to notch new records as elevated mortgage rates conspire with price increases to leave many would-be buyers out in the cold (figuratively and, in too many cases, quite literally).

I won’t pretend the NY Fed poll constitutes “news.” It doesn’t. Scarcely anyone will remember what it said by the end of the week in the event Wednesday’s CPI release is benign. If, however, core CPI overshoots a fourth month in the update for April, the NY Fed survey will merit mention as a canary.

In remarks for a Cleveland Fed event Monday, Philip Jefferson described “an attenuation” in disinflation progress. “We continue to look for additional evidence that inflation is going to return to our 2% target,” he said. “Until we have that, I think it is appropriate to keep the policy rate in restrictive territory.”