I hesitate to offer a money market fund flows update this week for what I assume are obvious reasons: It’s tax week.
As I’ve been keen to emphasize since early last month, you can’t read anything into money market fund flows during tax season. A couple of weeks back, for example, ICI data showed an anomalous $61.74 billion outflow. But it coincided with a business tax deadline. Two weeks later, all of that money came back, and then some. Then $31 billion flowed out the very next week.
This week saw the largest exodus since Lehman: $112 billion fled money funds during the tax week, according to an update released late Thursday in the US.
As the figure above shows, that eclipsed the $98 billion in tax-related redemptions seen in mid-October.
The breakdown showed outflows from every category: $90.3 billion from institutional government, $8.2 billion from retail government and $6 billion each from institutional and retail prime products.
Again, I don’t see much (read: any) utility in penning a breathless editorial for this occasion. This is tax-related, plain and simple. The figure below, which shows the largest decline in bank reserves in two years, is tax-related too.
If you’re keeping track at home, that’s a $286 billion drop.
Yes, all of the above had the potential to impact funding markets, which in turn might’ve stirred the proverbial pot. But no, that hasn’t happened. So far, so safe. Or at least as far as I can tell. If anything breaks, I’ll let you know.
For now, QT’s ongoing. RRP balances dipped to $327 billion on Monday, but rebounded to $433 billion as of Thursday. There’s no urgency to start the QT taper until ~$250 billion or thereabouts.


