Less than a week after intercepting an unprecedented barrage of drones and missiles launched by the IRGC in retaliation for an attack on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Syria, Israel struck sites inside Iran setting the stage for another tense weekend in the Middle East.
Brent spiked above $90 and gold rose past $2,400 as news of the alleged Israeli strikes spread, raising the specter of a tit-for-tat spiral with the potential to disrupt crude supplies and drag the US further into a regional conflagration the Biden administration has tried desperately (and unsuccessfully) to quell.
Although Israel appeared to spare Iran’s nuclear facilities, the rumored direct hits on a military base in Isfahan nevertheless had the potential to elicit a response from the Guards. Iranian diplomats and generals warned repeatedly this week that additional Israeli strikes against the country’s interests would be met with force.
Just hours before explosions were heard in central Iran, an IRGC commander told state media the country could “revise” its nuclear policies and retaliate in kind in the event Israel decided to target nuclear sites.
Separately, Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian reiterated that Iran had no intentions to attack Israel directly again, but would if provoked.
Iran, Amirabdollahian told the Security Council, has “concluded” what he described as “legitimate countermeasures,” a reference to Israel’s brazen strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1. But he repeated that “further military adventurism against [Iran’s] interests” would invite “a decisive and proper response.”
Details of Friday’s strikes inside Iran were initially sparse, so it was hard to say what’d constitute a “proper” counterattack, but with both sides having pledged to respond to any additional attacks against their interests, and with both Israel and Iran determined that their actions constitute legitimate self-defense, the stage was set for reciprocal escalations.
On Thursday, the US vetoed a bid by Palestine to be recognized as a full UN member state. Riyad Mansour, Palestine’s UN enjoy, described the US firewall as a travesty. “Our right to self determination is a natural right,” he said. Gilad Erdan, Israel’s ambassador, jeered the resolution, calling it a reward for terror. “All we ask for is to be treated as equals,” Mansour went on. Currently, Palestine is recognized as a “nonmember observer state.”
As the specifics of Israel’s targets in Iran emerge in the hours ahead, the world will better be able to assess the odds of another Iranian attack. Notwithstanding Tehran’s bravado, it seemed unlikely the IRGC would chance another drone and missile volley of the sort the Guards staged on April 13.
In the same Thursday remarks to the Security Council, Amirabdollahian said Iran would make Israel “regret its actions” should the IDF go forward with additional strikes. Suffice to say Israel wasn’t convinced.
