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War’s Coming
Western democracies, and particularly the US, should consider playing a little offense for a change.
These times of ours are trying, and the writing's on the wall: Unaligned autocrats are plotting a coup against the post-Soviet, Washington-led world order in all its various manifestations. So far, the US and its allies have largely stuck to defense.
Sanctions against Putin's Russia for the Ukraine invasion were reactive. Recently imposed trade and investment restrictions on China, as well as i
Great piece. Although sobering for sure. What is your assessment of Taiwan and whether it really wants to defend itself? I’d find it very difficult to send Americans to defend the country unless they were 100% committed to it. I don’t get the sense that they are. But, candidly, I have not read a lot on this issue.
I also find it very interesting that the Philippines have turned away from China and back towards the USA. Perhaps driven by the Chinese overreach in the South China Sea.
If we can get our act together, we can assemble a strong coalition of Pacific countries, with a Euro assist, to counter China. You nailed the question though, Do we have the stomach for it?
In Taiwan, the incoming government did return the most pro-independence party to power. Barely. In the presidential vote, William Lai won the presidential election with just over 40 percent of the vote. The two candidates parties seen as more amenable of reaching a detente with the PRC won 33.5 percent and 26.5 percent of the vote. Lai’s party lost their majority in the legislature. So it is not all that obvious that a majority is willing to join a war against the PRC.
(I am somewhat biased in my assessment since friends in HK who snagged foreign passports (they CAN leave) in in 1980s chose to remain there after 1997 and to this day. Think about that.)
Then there’s this poll which has been getting a bit of attention is Asia:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Majority-of-ASEAN-people-favor-China-over-U.S.-survey-finds#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20State%20of,asking%20the%20question%20in%202020.
Shelby’s comment that a majority of Vietnamese prefer the US over China is reflected in the results. Partly due to territorial disputes and partly due to centuries-old military conflicts between China and Vietnam. The Philippines has lurched over to the US side after flirting with China under Duarte.
But look at the other nations starting to side with China.
I wonder how much support countries in the region will offer if the Taiwanese and PRC manage to agree on some kind of first step reunification. Will they line up with the US to prevent TSMC etc from selling chips to the PRC?
Yeah, I think it’s an aversion to war for a lot of voters in Taiwan more than it is an affinity for autocracy. If the PLA’s right next door to me, and I think there’s a chance that making nice with Xi will insure my security, I might be inclined to give up a little autonomy in exchange for a promise that I won’t be invaded and/or killed. That’s a terrible position for Xi to put people in, but if I’m in it, I might well choose to placate Xi. Because even if the US Navy can eventually save my island, there’s no guarantee they’re going to be there in time to save me personally.
Reminds me of 1914. Everybody’s getting ready. All we need is a trigger. The destruction will be epic.
Reading this again, it strikes me that surviving on nothing but vodka, borscht and cigarettes might not be so bad.
Not vodka, surely? Unless it’s Chopin maybe, but I don’t think that’s in Putin’s subsistence-for-the-people budget.
US is not even close to being ready. We have a significant recruiting problem.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/17/us/marines-army-recruits.html
Then there’s the information and propaganda war, which we’re not just losing badly, we’re barely even fighting back. Moreover, unlike the cold war we’re effectively in, the information war is hot as hell. How many American corporate databases and government email servers have to be penetrated by Chinese hackers before we fire back? How many American businesses, infrastructure, health care services, etc., have to see their entire systems locked up by ransomware from Russian state-sanctioned hackers before we return fire? Not to mention a social media ocean awash in disinformation, propaganda, and noise tailor made to divide and weaken the very fabric of democracy! To the extent we do participate, it’s almost entirely playing defense.
So, forgotten about STUXNET? Who developed that?
What about the Middle East? At least with respect to Russian and the ME, if the US lowers the regulations to drill more oil and the global price of oil drops- that should slow down the chance of war with those two.
With respect to Taiwan, it is hard to imagine that the US Navy could save Taiwan if China decides to take it- which might happen in a manner similar to the Hong Kong takeover – by the slow, but methodical, infiltration of the politicians, rulers, and police.
We all hope you are wrong. It seems you are fanning some fear. It does seem that some good old fashioned fear could help people wake up to these problems. However, fanning fear can backfire. I am not smart enough to know when or how much fear to dish up. Thank you for your effort.
China’s best way to take Taiwan is by cutting its air and sea supply and trade links. China could find some pretext to announce that all cargo aircraft and ships are barred from Taiwan, shoot down a couple cargo 747s, sink a couple container or bulk ships, and all civilian transport to/from Taiwan would stop. The US Navy + allies cannot escort enough convoys and intercept enough missiles to keep an entire country’s economy afloat, if the missiles are sophisticated Chinese ones and the launchers are in China and thus off-limits for airstrikes, just like US aircraft could not cross the Yalu during the Korean War. Taiwan would be in economic depression in weeks/months and negotiating the terms of its re-unification within a year. Yes, China could be hit with economic and financial sanctions, the global financial system could be split in two, ditto the global trade system, a long and deep global recession would result – IF the US/West was willing to go down that path, which might depend on whether Taiwan is at that time still the world’s irreplaceable supplier of semiconductors . . . if it isn’t, the US/West might consider the economic cost not worth the fait accompli. Either way, China would, in a couple years, have Taiwan and the key Taiwanese assets would be intact.
Compare to the alternative of China invading Taiwan. There is a good chance it would fail – I read that simulations suggest the most likely result is China loses most of its navy and the invasion forces including hundreds of thousands of casualties, the US loses multiple carrier groups and many tens of thousands of casualties, and Taiwan is not successfully invaded but is not exactly intact either. Even if the invasion succeeds, TSMC’s fabs will be destroyed – by the US if necessary. After such a US-China war, it will take a generation(s) for economic relations to revive – much longer than after a largely bloodless blockade.
Well put JL. Something like 40% off electricity on the island is powered by LNG which flows into two ports. Easy targets for a blockade. As I recall, coal-powered generators supply an equal amount. Coal is imported as well but stocks can be built up unlike LNG.
Not much different than Japan.
Russia seems like an easier issue. The US, w/ or w/o NATO, could establish air dominance in days and destroy most of Russia’s logistics, tactical missiles, and artillery in weeks. The Ukrainians have destroyed much of Russia’s armor and experienced ground units, the latter being harder to replace. I don’t see how Russia’s Black Sea and Baltic fleets could accomplish much in a full-scale war, bottled up in a small area and hunted by NATO submarines and aircraft. I think Putin would either meet his Et tu, Brutus? fate quickly, or reach for the nuclear card and meet his end shortly after. I also think he is well aware of that.
Good article. And Simon Johnson is still very smart
my sophistication on this issue is fairly limited though ive read that two significantly major impediments for a Chinese invasion are 1) the extremely mountainous terrain of much of Taiwan, and 2) China having to supply its invading force from sea which could leave them extremely vulnerable to counterattack…curious others’ thoughts here…
Some reading:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan
https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?VersionId=WdEUwJYWIySMPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ
https://thediplomat.com/2020/11/taiwans-overall-defense-concept-explained/
thank you per usual, John L … I perused the diplomat’s … it’s very involved…and I’ll finish that, probably read and review again, and check out the others as well…
This post is no longer showing up in my articles list. What gives?
Other than a “latent war declaration,” I have never understood what our “plan” to defend Taiwan actually was. If the PLA lands 100,000-200,000 troops overnight, with sea and air support, what could we possibly do to discourage them without endangering every civilian life there (not to mention those precious semiconductor plants)?
China cannot land 100-200K troops “overnight”. Takes time to mobilize, move men and equipment, position and load RO/RO ships, etc. Invasion preparations will be evident, not a “surprise”. RO/RO ships are big targets. Taiwan has a lot of antiship missiles. I’d think US submarines are always in the general area, and US carriers are never too far away.
Anyone noticed the surprise election results in South Korea? The party more inclined to take a hard line against the north lost seats versus the opposition which is not as strident.
It’s relevant to this discussion because the Koreans were among the most reluctant to join the US tech embargo against the PRC. Countries are following Trump’s advice and looking after their own best interests, not that of the US.
1 – Noah Smith will be pleased.
2- To think we’re going to have to waste trillions of dollars in supply capacity just to deter 2 men, out of 8 billions. Xi and Putin. I mean, Putin isn’t the only revanchist in Russia and Xi is not likely to be the only hawk but it’s easy to imagine a world where their replacements aren’t nearly as stupid/focused on 19C logic.