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New Home Sales Meander Amid Intractable American Housing Conundrum
New home sales in the US rose at just half the expected pace in January, and that off a downwardly-revised base in December.
The 1.54% month-to-month increase was the second consecutive, but it was underwhelming. Economists collectively saw a 3% increase. And, again, revisions lopped 27,000 off the prior three months, pointing to a slower pace of sales during Q4 of 2023. January's annual rate was 661,000 against a 684,000 consensus. The range of estimates from 55 people who get paid to make gue
“As a quick aside, do note that any one of those people could submit a guess not based on any sort of forecast, but rather simply based on the other guesses.”
This reminds me of one of my favorite bits of economics trivia: the number one predictor of next month’s inflation rate? This month’s inflation rate. The second best predictor is the previous month’s inflation.
I suspect that’s true for most economic variables.
II actually appreciate the self-referential aspects of Heisenberg’s articles. It gives me an insight into the strength I should ascribe to various points made and I find that it projects a level of scepticism that accords with my own. That said, we hope it doesn’t get out of hand. (the self-reference)
I don’t know what “out of hand” means. The thing about Heisenberg Report is that if you don’t like one article, you’ll like the next one or at least the one after that, and there are dozens upon dozens of them every week, with no interruptions for anything, ever. So there’s always going to be something you like, no matter who you are and no matter what day of the week it is. If I weren’t me, I’d like the site. That’s really how I look at it. I ask myself “Would you read this?” And the answer’s always “yes.”
I’d read even more efforts, I’ve been 100% since mid 2020, and remember specifically the last time and theme I chose to skip…a “Blue Wave” election prognostication…thanks for the memories, H…
And would like to add I’m a good 90% compliant with excellent and thoughtful comments on this site…
Yeah but consensus estimates were for 95% compliance, so look out below.