Going strictly by the data calendar, it’ll be a quiet week for the world’s largest economy.

Other than Nvidia’s earnings release on Wednesday and the January FOMC minutes, there’s virtually nothing notable scheduled.

Of course, that doesn’t mean nothing will happen. Sometimes the quiet weeks turn out to be the loudest. And this week could be pretty loud in Gaza, where the Israeli military’s likely to begin an offensive in Rafah. Geopolitical observers will also eye Russia, where the Kremlin worked over the weekend to suppress public displays of mourning for Aleksei Navalny, whose untimely demise (attributed farcically to “sudden death syndrome“) was yet another testament to tyranny.

The account of the Fed’s January policy meeting will be contextualized by overshoots on both consumer and producer prices in last week’s inauspicious round of US data. As discussed at some length in the latest Weekly, market participants and macro watchers are whispering about a higher terminal rate — i.e., the prospect that the next move from the Fed might actually be a hike, not a cut.

As the familiar figure above shows, market pricing for rate cuts in 2024 is now roughly in line with the December dot plot. So far, that adjustment (less in the way of rate-cut premium) hasn’t impacted equities. I’ve suggested stocks can hold up as long as the market doesn’t begin to suspect that the three cuts tipped by the last SEP are in doubt.

Wednesday’s FOMC minutes are probably too stale to matter. When Powell regaled reporters late last month, a March rate cut was still on the table — or at least in the market’s opinion. That’s no longer the case. There’s no chance of a move next month, so any color alluding to that in the minutes is redundant.

I’ve argued (repeatedly) that the Fed’s behind the curve when it comes to socializing the QT taper, notwithstanding Lorie Logan’s effort to get the balling rolling in early January. Perhaps the minutes will provide a bit more clarity on when that discussion will commence in earnest, although I doubt traders will learn anything they didn’t already know: There was a preliminary discussion around tapering the pace of balance sheet runoff in January, and that discussion will get more serious next month. With RRP balances dropping below $500 billion, I think the Committee should announce the parameters and time table in March rather than waiting until May, but what do I know, right?

The only other scheduled notables are existing home sales and flash prints on S&P Global’s PMIs for February. The latter have market-moving potential, the former obviously doesn’t. “Market-moving” in the context of the PMIs just means rates will respond to the headlines, even if the impact proves fleeting or otherwise inconsequential. S&P’s PMIs only matter in the US until ISM releases its surveys during the first week of the next month.

Markets are now keen for any evidence that the big US retail sales miss for January is picking up something the labor market doesn’t yet reflect. No answers (let alone definitive answers) are forthcoming in that regard in the holiday-shortened week, during which traders will hear from a handful of Fed speakers, almost all of them on Thursday.

Elsewhere, an update on the Ifo survey will likely suggest the German economy remains mired in a recession (or something that looks a lot like a recession) and Israel will release GDP data for the fourth quarter, which is to say for the period covering the war.