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How Worried Should The World Be About China’s Economy?
How bad is the macro situation in China?
It's a crucial question. For China, yes, but for the whole
China is debt trapped. Only “painless” way out is state government forgiving local govn’t debt – which in of itself creates massive moral hazard issues… Expect more pain to come.
As for the social contract aspect, I agree to an extent however I wouldnt under estimate govern’t ability to iron fist itself out of public discontent. Take example from the economic reforms of the 1990s, massive state enterprise layoffs right after populous democracy protests few years earlier. Then many people thought the CCP was doomed and yet they’re still kicking around.
Where is your source for this stats? Having personally lived in China for over 2 years recently I highly doubt your claim “half the population living off of 200 rmb per month”.
I still have many friends in HK with the means to leave (financial and foreign passports in the family) but choose not to. If life is so horrible in China, why do they stay?