What To Expect From The January FOMC Meeting

Jerome Powell's probably grateful that rate-cut pricing, both for the March FOMC meeting and for the full year, has receded from recent extremes. It's clear the Committee would rather not cut rates in March and market pricing was nearly 80% at one juncture. There's still around 10bps of cut premium priced for that meeting, and more than 130bps priced for the full year, more aggressive than the December dot plot to be sure. But when you think about cut pricing for 2024, remember: That aggregate