EM Stocks See Biggest Inflow Ever Amid China Stimulus Bets

Investors were buying emerging market stocks over the last week.

A record $12.1 billion flowed into EM-focused ETFs and mutual funds, according to EPFR’s weekly flows update.

Why would anyone be buying EM equities right now? Aren’t emerging markets a “lost cause,” as I put it late last month?

Well, for one thing, I could be dead wrong about emerging markets. I’ve been wrong before, believe it or not. More than once, I’m told. Additionally, the Fed’s going to cut rates this year, and that could be a boon to emerging markets as long as global growth doesn’t deteriorate too much.

But more importantly, recall that my “lost cause” characterization was predicated on the notion that EM really just means China (and India). And some worry China may be slipping into a Japan-style macro malaise.

The country’s equity markets are beset to the point that officials are reportedly considering a two-trillion-yuan rescue package. The PBoC pre-announced an RRR cut this week.

The CSI 300 and Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares responded, notching decent weekly advances, although both slipped on Friday.

If China’s synonymous with EM and things turn around in China, then emerging markets might be a good bet. And with authorities in Beijing apparently sensing the situation is urgent, Chinese shares may be a decent contrarian gamble. For the brave.

The figure below shows the massive inflow to EM equity funds mentioned here at the outset.

So, again, that’s $12.1 billion. $11.9 billion went to Chinese stocks, presumably on bets that the Party is poised to engineer a rally.

Recall that “short Chinese equities” was identified as the second-most crowded trade on Earth in the January vintage of BofA’s closely-watched Global Fund Manager poll.

Apropos, the bank’s Michael Hartnett, writing in his latest weekly, called Chinese stocks “the biggest contrarian long trade on the planet.” The inflow to Chinese equities this week counted as the second-largest ever, Hartnett said.


 

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3 thoughts on “EM Stocks See Biggest Inflow Ever Amid China Stimulus Bets

  1. It’s a bit of a head-scratcher, isn’t t?

    You would think the Chinese shares are well “sold out” and sport a hefty short base. But they are not showing much upside from the announcements and flows.

      1. Onshore until a few days ago. Offshore no problem. And your friendly “structured product” group at your favorite investment bank will be delighted to conjure up a package of swaps to achieve the same exposure.

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