Is Putin Secretly Tired Of The War?
Last week, during his annual ask-me-anything-a-thon, Vladimir Putin was as brash and defiant as ever.
"Either we get an agreement or we solve this by force," Putin, who'll award himself another six-year term next year following a mock election, declared. "There will be peace when we achieve our goals."
He was, of course, referring to his "special military operation" in Ukraine. The standard narrative around the war goes something like this.
Kyiv's counteroffensive achieved little in the way o
I’m curious if the drop in crude prices over the last 3 months is starting to weigh on the Russian economy / war effort?
I would make the argument that if what has been written is true, it’s a great time for the West to double down on financing the war in Ukraine and try to win it. The Ukrainian offensive essentially failed. Why would Putin now be looking to “move on?” Also what does he want to move on to?
That.
Ukraine is fragile and has bad internal options to go through (mobilisation). But it can bleed the Russians & win the exchange in terms of men and material. So let’s help do that until the Russian military is so depleted it topples…
It would actually be a big win for our military procurement systems who need to be reformed and re-oriented towards peer conflict. So 2 birds with 1 stone…
This is from an excellent article (How Putin’s Right-Hand Man Took out Prigozhin) published yesterday in the WSJ- which strongly suggests that Putin is in office based at the direction of a group of oligarchs who rule the economics of Russia and that Putin is accountable to them.
“Through the power of state-controlled media and his own persona, Putin has unsettled the West with his image as a determined adversary who rules Russia alone. In fact, he is kept in power by a vast bureaucracy that has proven durable through deepening hostilities with the West and rising domestic divisions over the botched invasion of Ukraine.
Controlling the levers of that machine is Patrushev. He has climbed to the top by interpreting Putin’s policies and carrying out his orders. Throughout Putin’s reign, he has expanded Russia’s security services and terrorized its enemies with assassinations at home and abroad. More recently his profile has grown, backing Russia’s invasion, and his son Dmitry, a former banker, has been appointed agriculture minister and is touted by some as a potential successor to Putin.”
If this is true, until the oligarchs either get access to the ports, natural resources they want or the oligarchs decide they want to end the war- the war will likely continue.