The Peril Of Ukraine Fatalism
Mainstream commentary around the war in Ukraine comes across as increasingly (and perhaps unduly) fatalistic these days.
The second anniversary of Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion is fast approaching and to let some experts tell it, hopes of a Russian defeat look more far-fetched all the time.
The much-ballyhooed Ukrainian counteroffensive produced little in the way of tangible results, the Russian economy hasn't collapsed under the weight of Western sanctions and Yevgeny Prigozhin's accid
Thank you. Your blunt statement of this truth is welcome.
The last thing we need is an analog of Neville Chamberlain’s Munich Agreement. We all know how well THAT worked out.
Thank you H for your always sober analysis. I think every word of what you say here resonates with me. I’d add this focused way forward as a worthy follow on read, from the Institute for the Study of War, by Natalia Bugayova: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/it’s-time-west-embrace-ukraine’s-way-war-not-doubt-it
Rhineland, Sudetenland, Austria…Poland etc…the world has seen this movie. How can we forget / ignore? IMO Putin should have been given a nuclear ultimatum the day his tanks rolled (if not sooner – even years ago with Crimea.
Yes and yes.
And let’s add that giving in to Putin, at this point, would embolden Xi wrt Taiwan in what would be a worse showdown inasmuch as two nuclear superpowers would be squaring it off, right off the bat.
Furthermore, while the Ukrainian offensive proved too costly to Kyiv to maintain (given the sparsity of western support), Russian offensives in places like Avdiivka have followed a pattern of military asset consumption that has to be hard to sustain…
Basically, it’s a slugfest and while neither party has a strong hand, I’d say the advantage, for the time being at the very least, goes to Ukraine. Not only western mendacity in supporting Ukraine is short sighted and stupid but it’d be a damn shame, given Ukraine’s sacrifices, to try and pressure Zelensky into a surrender.
Agree with the article and comments. It’s easy for Ukraine to fade into the background, but important to not let that happen. Let’s hope for Ukraine’s (as well as our own) sake that Trump doesn’t sniff the White House again.
I agree that appeasing and capitulating to a tyrant only encourages them to do be more aggressive. But then the question is what is the path forward ? Frozen conflict ? Is more of the same enough…meaning more money and weapons (limited weapons has been the strategy so far that prevents Ukraine from attacking Russian homeland directly). In a long war of attrition, does Ukraine run the risk of depleting its manpower/troops to such a degree that it can no longer continue to fight ? It seems Western Europe has gotten tired of this war as their economies stagnate and their immigration issues can no longer be ignored by the elites as anti-immigrant backlash is causing seismic shifts in their politics. EU is happy to outsource the whole Ukraine mess to the US.
Agree with all H says.
When talking about the problems with immigrants, please remember that these are largely part of Putin’s hybrid war policy. He uses them (as well as your Tucker Carlson’s critical material) for his domestic propaganda purposes and internationally to cause division within EU democracies and to take people’s eyes off his bungling in Ukraine.
Yeah, I mean creating refugee crises is part of the Kremlin playbook here. They did the same thing in Syria in 2015 and that worked “great” for perpetuating anti-migrant sentiment in the EU, which in turn impacted election outcomes.
fwiw … I’ve added Dignitas Ukraine to my Ukraine financial support orgs … along with…
Razom for Ukraine
Nova Ukraine
In 1943, Germany knew they would lose the war. They redoubled their efforts and committed their worst atrocities…I expect nothing less from Putin…If we make any kind of agreement with Putin, whatever territory Ukraine has must join Nato. If you look at a map, the last piece is Belarus, which I expect Putin will annex. If we keep up the sanctions, Their economy will rot- it just takes a long time. Meanwhile, we need to ruffle his feathers to make the elites fear going down with the ship more than being accountable for their complicity….Iran is our enemy, and Turkey is unreliable and we can’t ignore that. It’s a dangerous mess, but we have to deal with that…..
….and the West gets rid of a lot of it’s dated materiel so it can upgrade, Russia’s devastating loss of materiel that has to be replaced at a deficit quality to western standards. Russia’s current loss of 300k (it’s now a statistic rather than a tragedy). Russia’s loss of probably 1 million bright young men and women who have emigrated. Russia’s deteriorating relationship with its CIS “partners”, global pariah status and whatever anybody says – its imploding economy (I mean you can’t trust any economic stats). Read Nabiullina latest economic projections, the economy is sunk.