Where Are Stocks Most Vulnerable To Recession?
What's the most vulnerable segment of the market?
That depends on your macro outlook, but generally speaking, smaller firms have a lot of problems right now. They're cyclical, and pessimists insist a recession is imminent, evidence to the contrary be damned (everything's a lagging indicator now, apparently). They don't have large cash cushions, they have a lot of floating-rate debt and their maturity wall is quite steep.
Given all of that, it's small wonder that small-caps are absolutely beset
I love the 5y treasuries here. Not pricing a recession at all, but very hard to see a path meaningfully lower.
“Everything’s a lagging indicator now, apparently.”
Bravo.