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Bonds In Limbo After Historic Crash
A few days ago, I made the passing observation that if Fed officials are inclined to believe the latest leg higher for long-end US Treasury yields can stand in for the final rate hike tipped by the dot plot, they shouldn't be too explicit about it.
The risk is as clear as it is familiar: The market is forward-looking, so if the Fed suggests they're likely to skip another rate hike in light of the tightening impulse from the sharp term premium repricing and higher real rates, yields could retrac
Bloomberg can’t be right, $18 billion into TLT for 2023 and looking at a $10 billion loss. Bad math the way I look at it. And as always thanks for the article.
P-
I tweaked the wording a little bit, but just to be clear, are you disputing this, from BBG: “Bloomberg Intelligence estimates that more than $10 billion of cash has been burned by TLT this year, judging by the fund’s current assets relative to its lifetime flows, the third most of any ETF in 2023.”
If so, on what grounds are you disputing it? What does your math say?
H-Man, TBonds have been trashed over the last couple of months as you point out. We will if this is a dead cat bounce or whether it has legs. If we see a recession in 2024, which is likely, TBonds will have legs.