Criminal Adventures
If you're going to stage a military coup, you generally need military buy-in. Ideally, you are the military in a military coup, or at least a faction of the military.
A military coup not perpetrated by the military -- or by political entrepreneurs aligned with rebellious elements inside the military -- isn't a military coup. It's just a civil war. And not one you're especially likely to win, particularly not in modernity, because the military has a monopoly on modern weapons like warplanes and
Or how about ” maskirovka” where Ramzan Kadyrov of Chechen and Prigozhin are really headed for Veronezh and then Kyiv? Who knows is right?
Really the best balanced post I’ve seen here on Geopolitical matters in a while . A lot of surprises in Geopolitics but events are unpredictable and never without a cause . History can often be the best clue.
hoping Ukraine will benefit from this development … I suppose the more drawn out it is time wise the better for the liberation efforts…
I’m with the Ukrainian soldier. Too soon to tell what they’re really doing. You can’t believe a word any of them say. Just don’t get yourself stretched too thin. The Russians may just be trying to get the Ukrainian reserves committed before throwing in their own reserves and the Wagner boys.
Personally I think it’s all a Russian fake. They are like kids in the playground pretending to fight in front of teacher. Way too contrived.
I’d imagine that Kadyrov cut himself a good deal before repeating his allegiance to Putin. A battle between the two fiercest and most ruthless group of fighters in Ukraine would have been something to behold.
The west seems to assume that anyone would be better than Putin. An unfettered Prigozhin might well be far worse for Ukraine.
The last hour or two the story’s gotten downright weird. At least to most of us
https://www.amazon.com/Nothing-True-Everything-Possible-Surreal-ebook/dp/B00L4FSVZ6/ref=monarch_sidesheet
Yessir. Like a gangland shakedown.
But seriously, why are we getting all riled up over this Russian stuff. There are more important issues, no?
“GOP Sen. Marsha Blackburn Floats Conspiracy Theory On Titanic Sub And Hunter Biden”
I’m sure Hunter has something to do with this Ukraine stuff. But do look at Donald Trump’s latest reflections on the matter. Biden is in Xi’s pocket!
Prigozkin likely aborted his coup attempt and turned his Wagner forces around short of Moscow when key pre-arranged support in the Kremlin (and the Chechen leader) failed to materialize. Lukashenko gave Prigozkin a haven in Belarus to regroup before he mounts his next challenge to the corrupt Kremlin capo(s).
We will probably never know the real story. We do know it is not a good look for putin/russia. The Wagner leader was able to leave unhurt. Whats to stop the next warlord or wayward general?
Also there will be second and third order effects from this from putin. If you were in his shoes would this make you more relaxed or less about who you could trust? The spooks will be out in full force trying to figure out if anybody was in cahoots or was thinking about it or knew and said nothing…
I don’t get it. Prigozhin should avoid high floors and open windows, in any case.
Not at all.
My guess is that Prigozhin wants Shoigu’s job (minister of defense). Prigozhin has been telling Putin what he wants and Putin wasn’t agreeing to allow Prigozhin to take over- so Prigozhin had to stage a march on Moscow to show Putin the weakness of Shoigu.
It is Shoigu who should worry.
It would have been wild to watch how the algos would have reacted to the news flow if it had been on Monday, rather than on Saturday.
Would it have triggered an implied volatility storm? How would the put/call vol skew have moved? Would some algos actually withdraw until things settled?
It didn’t happen but it should be food for thought going forward.
The outcomes seems to be playing out as per the predications of our Dear Leader on Saturday. Well done, sir!
But, well, how can we be sure that you are not some kind of large dataset algo to make these prescient calls?
I think that some of the reason for the Wagner chief’s frustration is the clear incompetence of the Russian army. I think the bigger reason for him to head for Russia was to get the 47 million the FSB found at his headquarters for payroll for his troops and to pay off widows. The Belarus dictator must have agreed to give him the money to stop the crisis. The Wagner chief had to know if he went too close to Moscow that he would be badly outnumbered and at some point there would be no way to turn around.