Why The Bears Were Wrong
Why were the bears wrong on equities (and particularly on US equities) during the first half of 2023?
A lot of reasons if we're being honest, not least of which was underappreciating a multi-month systematic re-allocation to stocks.
Declining vol drove up positioning for systematic cohorts for months while several top-down strategists on Wall Street seemed reluctant to countenance the notion that those flows can override their treasured fundamentals, which anyway didn't cooperate with the bear
Thanks for sharing the humorous concluding words of Michael. Even though it does not seem that you have ever been married; it does not seem that you have missed out on the significant amount of humor that can occur, just through living daily life, between a man and a woman- one of the greatest pleasures in life.
No. I most assuredly haven’t been married.
A safer answer might have been: “as far as I can recollect, I haven’t been married.”
Or “Sir, I am unaware of any such activity or operation – nor would
I be disposed to discuss such an operation if it did in
fact exist, sir.”
1998-2000 Bears were wrong and it was painful. However, all losses that followed took markets back to 1994 levels in 2000-2003. Good tactical investors did very well.
This could go much higher on fumes. One has to assess his/own risk tolerance and whether he/she is a good
gambler and knows when to leave the table. Most don’t and lose it all never to come back into markets.
Briilliant summary