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‘So Many Things Can Go Wrong’
If it's evidence of moderating inflation you seek, you won't likely find it in this week's lone top-tier data release out of the US.
The update on PCE prices that'll accompany April's personal income and spending figures will probably show core PCE advanced 0.3% from the prior month and 4.6% from last year, similar to March's prints.
The YoY print for the headline PCE price gauge may be a tick higher than March's reading, at 4.3%.
There really isn't much to celebrate here. On a YoY basis, t
Base effects are going to make 12 month numbers look good, then the 2 months after that will have low numbers drop out and the numbers will look bad. So what! 12 month numbers are stale anyway. So much has changed since svb collapse. A forward looking central bank would be pausing and ending qt. Once the US treasury builds its cash back up, there will be a giant sucking sound of liquidity draining out. Fighting demand induced inflation is the last war.