If it’s evidence of moderating inflation you seek, you won’t likely find it in this week’s lone top-tier data release out of the US.

The update on PCE prices that’ll accompany April’s personal income and spending figures will probably show core PCE advanced 0.3% from the prior month and 4.6% from last year, similar to March’s prints.

The YoY print for the headline PCE price gauge may be a tick higher than March’s reading, at 4.3%.

There really isn’t much to celebrate here. On a YoY basis, the core measure isn’t even a full percentage point off the highs, and it’s still well more than double target.

We keep talking about “progress,” but that’s an extremely relative term and frankly, it’s not even obvious what it’s relative to. That is: “Progress” versus what? Sure, the headline inflation indexes are considerably off their respective peaks, but virtually any gauge of underlying, trend inflation you care to consult suggests things are basically the same or getting worse.

It’s the same story with wages. There’s a decent case to be made that US data on job openings may be overstated and some continue to insist that the jobless claims figures are ominous if you know where to look and how to measure, but the fact is, wage growth is nowhere near levels seen as consistent with the Fed’s definition of price stability, and it really doesn’t matter how you break it down.

To reiterate a familiar talking point: Not a single cohort in the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker is anywhere near the price stability zone.

If you’re inclined to say red-hot wage growth is a good thing because until inflation is lower, workers have to make a lot more otherwise they won’t be able to afford rent, food and so on, I’d tell you that’s precisely the point. If that’s your argument, you’re (literally) describing a wage-price spiral. Or a price-wage spiral, and as noted here earlier this month, putting “price” before “wage” (in an effort to vilify corporate management) doesn’t get us any closer to solving the chicken-egg problem.

Speaking of runaway price growth, data due this week will probably show inflation slowed well into the single-digits in the UK last month on base effects. The 8.2% print expected by economists would be the slowest since the onset of the war in Ukraine, and the first print below 10% since August.

The BoE hiked rates for a 12th meeting in May and you’d be forgiven for calling the bank hapless. Simply put: There’s nothing they can do. The UK is mired in an economic nightmare, and it’s far from obvious that additional rate hikes are going to help. But, vexingly, cutting rates could conceivably make the situation worse and the optics around staying on hold in the face of price growth that’s quadruple target (on a good month) aren’t great.

Elsewhere in Europe, key data out of Germany could hint at recession, but flash PMIs for the bloc will likely suggest the economy remains generally resilient, even as a sturdy services sector nods to persistent price pressure. Christine Lagarde said Sunday the ECB isn’t likely finished. “We covered a large chunk of the journey toward taming inflation [but] we are not done yet,” she told Buitenhof. “We are not pausing based on the information I have today. [The] inflation outlook is too high and for too long.”

Markets will also get the May FOMC minutes this week which could (but probably won’t) shed additional light on the Fed’s decision calculus. The second estimate of Q1 US GDP is due, and revisions could be meaningful if not likely market-moving. New home sales figures may underscore the bifurcated character of the US housing market, and the final read on University of Michigan sentiment will be eyed closely given the disastrous long-term inflation print that accompanied the preliminary release.

Debt ceiling talks will continue in the US as Joe Biden returns to Washington from the G7 gathering in Japan. A deal needs to come together this week. Janet Yellen is unlikely to change the x-date even if she thinks Treasury can make it through June with no resolution to the stalemate.

Lagarde said it best on Sunday while explaining why the ECB can’t provide forward guidance in the current environment: “So many things can go wrong.”