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‘We Aren’t There Yet’
Some economists were surprised Thursday by the scope of the decline in US jobless claims, which fell to 242,000 in the week to May 13.
You'd think, given news that the prior week's spike was attributable in no small part to fraud in Massachusetts, that all professional forecasters would be cautious about projecting another weekly increase. Apparently not, though.
Estimates ranged from 235,000 to 275,000, so at least someone thought claims were set to keep rising. Nearly four-dozen economists v
Personally I think a pretty big slowdown is coming for any number of reasons. Right now the Fed is in show me mode, and to be perfectly fair, the economy is holding up. If the cpi continues to make progress, my view is that it would not kill the Fed to pause. But if not, the Fed could be justified in hiking again. I don’t lean that way however.