“You once said that using the debt ceiling as a negotiating wedge just could not happen,” Kaitlan Collins reminded Donald Trump, during what I can’t help but describe as a painful town hall event broadcast in prime time on CNN.
Trump had just advised congressional Republicans to “do a default” if the Biden White House doesn’t acquiesce to “massive” spending cuts.
“Sure, that’s when I was president,” Trump interrupted. “So why is it different now that you’re out of office?” Collins wondered, walking straight into a joke at her expense. “Because now I’m not president,” a smirking Trump said, without missing a beat.
The crowd giggled, and applauded. Collins took it in stride, but we seemingly haven’t learned much since Trump announced his intention to seek the highest office on Earth in 2015. You can’t play “gotcha” with someone who’s shameless. Shamelessness can, and often does, manifest in lies, and Trump is a serial liar, but depending on the circumstances, shamelessness can be a nefarious cousin of honesty.
Famously vain as he is, Trump isn’t averse (at all) to leveraging self-deprecating honesty in the service of manipulating the masses. That’s precisely what he did when Collins called out his debt ceiling hypocrisy — he not only admitted to it, he made a punchline out of it, and out of Collins in the process. He did the exact same thing to Hillary Clinton on any number of occasions. Stylized: “You don’t pay any taxes.” “That makes me smart.”
I wasn’t going to dedicate any coverage to Trump’s return to CNN, but after giving it some thought, I decided I’d be remiss not to mention it for two reasons.
First, giving him a platform arguably trivializes his legal predicament, thereby normalizing the abnormal. That, I think, is problematic for a number of reasons, most of which I assume are obvious.
Second, and far more narrowly, Trump’s debt ceiling remarks were unhelpful. He made a direct appeal to a party that’s still in many ways beholden: “I say to the Republicans out there — Congressman, Senators — if they don’t give you massive cuts, you’re going to have to do a default.”
Who knows what he’s telling Kevin McCarthy in private, but by taking a public position on the issue, Trump preemptively painted any Republicans who agree to a “clean” debt ceiling increase as weak-willed politicians. No politicians are excited about the prospect of being castigated by the frontrunner for their party’s nomination, even less so when that frontrunner is a would-be authoritarian with no filter and no regard for any kind of decorum.
Collins tried to press Trump on the perils of a US default, which she insisted “would be massively consequential.” “Well, you don’t know,” Trump said. “It’s really psychological more than anything else. And it could be very bad, it could be maybe nothing, it could be you have a bad week or a bad day.”
Trump is partly right. There’s a sense in which hyperbole like that I employed here on Wednesday is just that — balderdash which may or may not overstate the consequences of a default, depending in large part on how people react. To be sure, it’s not just psychological. It may, as Trump suggested, be “psychological more than anything else,” but it’s very difficult to disentangle what’s psychological and what’s technical, particularly given the potential for the technicalities to feed back into psychology.
As the TBAC letter to Janet Yellen made clear, there are reasons why the US can’t default. The role of Treasurys and T-bills as the collateral that underpins the global financial system means a default scenario, if pushed too far, could in fact be the kind of existential catastrophe that so many market participants have insisted it would be. To the extent Trump doubts that, he just doesn’t understand how things work. We can debate the longer-term consequences for dollar hegemony, and you could plausibly argue that a default, if cured expeditiously, wouldn’t be the end of the financial universe, but the idea that “it could be maybe nothing,” as Trump put it, is a stretch.
Then again — and I think this is an important point — Trump knows the voting public is increasingly distrustful of the “official” line on sensitive issues. That distrust isn’t without merit. We’d all like to believe the government only lies to us when it’s necessary — only exaggerates (or underplays) risks when doing so is seen as the best way to prevent a bad outcome or avert an unnecessary panic. Unfortunately, that isn’t true. We know, from extensive experience, that the government lies all the time, and not always to some noble end. Trump exploits that history of lies, and he does it very effectively, albeit sometimes in the service of perpetuating his own lies.
When he asks, implicitly, “Who says a two-day or three-day or even one-month US default would be the end of the world?” and when he says, almost explicitly, “Nobody knows that for sure”, there’s a sense in which he’s being more honest than the rest of us. If the whole world does in fact revolve around US government paper as collateral, and the global financial system can’t function in the absence of an assumption that says all such collateral is good collateral, then the choice is pretty binary in a temporary default scenario: Either everyone looks the other way while the US figures it out, or else the world stops spinning. That’s not much of a choice. So, in that sense, Trump is right: It is “psychological more than anything else.”
Panning back out from the specifics of the debt ceiling drama, Trump’s town hall was, at almost every turn, a reminder of what’s so uncomfortable about him for someone like myself.
As regular readers are aware, I harbor a very pessimistic view of humanity, and I don’t traffic in normative statements. I doubt very seriously the existence of “good” people or “honest” people, and I take very seriously the idea that our species inflicts massive suffering on one another and, crucially, on other sentiment beings, every, single day.
Trump exemplifies a lot of what we’re taught to abhor, and for that, I do abhor him. But coming full circle, there’s something almost honest in his dishonesty. Something almost refreshing in his shamelessness. He’s a living, breathing affront to the values so many of us espouse, but if none of us truly embody those values, then who’s the liar?
Well put sir. Yes it is (that made up word to fit …) “psychological” in the same way your bank or brokerage balance is. Just numbers only connected to a reality by mutual consent. And as far as Big Orange goes you get exactly what you pay for. My ability to ignore is all paid up. Better things to occupy my last days on earth. It would indeed be the ultimate irony if Biden beats him twice. (and he lost the popular vote to Hillary too).
The William Jennings Bryan of our time (if he loses the popular vote a third time).
He is.
Yeah, he is. But so is anyone who, for example, proudly claims to be an advocate for racial equality but can’t keep their mind from conjuring something derogatory about “that music” when an African American twentysomething pulls up next to them at a stoplight playing loud rap. Or, similarly, someone who, while ostensibly aggrieved at disgusting rhetoric around America’s immigration debate, skips over a qualified Hispanic job applicant because (unspoken) “those tattoos might be gang tattoos.” Or, say, someone who ostensibly takes their marriage vows very seriously, but can’t keep their mind from going places it shouldn’t when an attractive person who isn’t the spouse walks by. Or, say, someone who’s aghast at the conflict in Ukraine, but runs a factory farm where tens of thousands of sentient animals are subjected to physical and psychological torture so that we can all eat them. And so on, and so forth. We are, collectively, a very, very hypocritical, cruel and irredeemable species, and every one of us is a liar.
Regarding racism in particular, I do think it is in fact necessary to virtue signal and work on bettering oneself and others at the same time. As for virtue signalling overall, remember that most people need simplicity in most contexts, and thus shared virtues end up dictating how society functions because they provide simplicity. Does advocating against racism before having fully reached an entirely inclusive state of mind make you a liar?
I realize it is just a supporting example, but: Are we allowed to kill animals to eat – well, it would be preferred not to, and maybe soon we won’t have to. But sentient horror nastier than the movie Aliens happens out in nature every single day. Considering that, and considering our assumed allegiance to our species, I don’t think of the example you gave that harshly, especially when juxtaposed against sympathy to Ukrainian suffering.
No mistake though, humanity certainly is in a bleak place. It is simple to see that we are failing tests of our collective judgment over and over. Maybe we are culturally and even biologically evolving to become better beings [e.g. scientists think we are becoming less impulsive and violent over time], but progress is far too slow in face of existential risks.
RE “Trump, the Debt Ceiling..”
The devil has enough advocates, so to speak. If someone with your caliber of reckoning the plausibility of financial outcomes can’t hew to a line that Trump’s entire angle is clearly dangerous to global financial stability, who can? His whole game is an affront to do many of us who actively try to seek outcomes which consider others- rather than revel in blatant disregard for everyone but oneself. Disavowal of “normative” statements here is just another form of harmful apathy and enabling of an obvious sociopath.
This comment is a testament to exactly the point I’m making in this article. We virtue signal when we’re not virtuous. That tendency of ours is what actually enables people like Trump.
This is the last comment I’m going to leave on this article, because nobody is willing to tell the truth about themselves or about our species in general. We’d rather pretend that there are “good” people and “bad” people so that the world makes more sense to us. If we stop pretending that, then… hmmm, it’s pretty rough on the mind, isn’t it?
Look, people suck. Some by their own doing and some because they grow up in a family or system that fosters bad beliefs, habits, or otherwise that result in a lack of trust in others that are different from them, whether it be education, socioeconomic, religion, skin color, etc. Hilary wasn’t wrong about “deplorables”. She was just wrong to say it publicly. The problem now is Trump has fully tapped into the deplorable crowd while simultaneously catering to the broader population of sycophants that believe he has their best interests in mind. Throw in the “Reagan Democrats” and other relatively “middle of the roaders” looking for less regulation and tax breaks, and you have a recipe for disaster in 2024.
Good piece, Walt. However, I genuinely think there are good and bad people in this world. We are born into this world. Physics demands that something dies so something else can live. We can think horrible things and not act on them and I think that’s okay.
A well-fed lion will nonchalantly observe a wildebeest drinking from a pond, as he slowly digests the wildebeest’s brother.
It is in Trump’s interest to create maximum chaos and damage to the US, since that improves his chances of getting back into the White House. Whether he does or doesn’t understand the risks, I’d expect him to throw as many grenades into the process as possible.
There is a difference between tRump, who revels in deception and debauchery, and imperfect people that strive to be virtuous but fall short. Having said that, the long term damage to society hasn’t and will not come from tRump but from the vast number of spiritual and political leaders that have chosen to boldly adopt his ‘whatever profiteth me is good’ philosophy.
On the other hand, I’m encouraged to see these tRumpian leaders expose their real selves now that tRump has popularized the illness. It makes election day choices so much easier.
Once again, social media seems to have provided our species with a self-immolating lube. I agree there is far too much weighing in and virtue-signaling made possible by social media platforms, and why I have advocated a return to something akin to just shutting up and minding our own business — in the context here, that can be reduced to “keep your lies to yourself.” But it used to be that being a good or honest person required overt demonstration and then observation and confirmation by others, not self-certification, declaration and promotion
In the context of “doing a default” (as said by the man who has self-declared knowing more about debt than anyone), I wonder if social media and rapid electronic funds transfers might change the tenor and ramifications of another US debt ceiling impasse, as we’ve just witnessed with several banks on the regulatory radar that went into death spirals before the Fed could finish sharpening its pencils. I understand they are two entirely different issues, but I’d be lying if I said that I believe the next debt ceiling showdown will likely look a lot like the last one.
What makes me uncomfortable isn’t the man himself. It’s watching how the cult followers lap up all of his lies and “jokes” like it is the best thing they have ever heard anyone say in their life that makes me uncomfortable. He may be more honest, as you put it, than the rest of us. But what I think you’re missing is the aspirational part of “being a good person” that we all used to care about. This giving up on aspirational goodness and “F*ck your feelings” movement is pretty damn dark to watch unfold. I also tend to be more of a pessimist when it comes to humans, I think most people are portraying goodness because it either is expected or, gets them what they want. But I can say a large part of the divide that grows increasingly since he reality TV showed his way into the election and was emphasized by the worst pandemic in 100 years is this idea that you are okay openly hating people who you disagree with. That taken with rules are for other people and not my dear leader or me, well I think that’s a recipe for the chaotic world we live in with mass shootings every day and corruption at every level of government. CNN absolutely screwed up by putting him on the air unless their objective is to replace Fox News. Either way, I’m glad I don’t watch my news.
+1 cdameworth.
I think a couple of related delusions help explain this, which sadly have their roots under Obama when he declared “you didn’t do this” meaning that those who had achieved some success should recognize the collective support that went into it. That humble sentiment seemed to catalyze a lot of indignation and has led us to our new bifurcated paradigm which I think Trump has tapped into — 1) my success is my meritocratic own, and 2) my failure/dissatisfation is someone else’s fault. Trump may not be able to actually fix things for most of his supporters (and may actually make them worse), but he nonetheless makes them feel better about their unchanged or deteriorating circumstances.
Isn’t that sort of the name of the confidence game?
A quibble: Trump is not more “honest” than the average American because he’s more bald-faced and unapolagetic about his lying; he’s more shameless — by a large magnitude.
Why should man expect his prayer for mercy to be heard by What is above him when he shows no mercy to what is under him? – Pierre Troubetzkoy
I understand where you are coming from and have struggled with this very dilemma for decades. There will always be hypocrisy in human nature, and nothing is perfect. The world/universe is an imperfect place and religion has been used since the dawn of man to justify our existence and wrongdoings. (also, to consolidate power and control) People can’t accept that they are not “special” and their life doesn’t have a higher meaning. All people are good and bad at times and those lines are often blurred by perception. After all perception is reality.
In other words (mine, not Walt’s) we all have an inner Trump. Acknowledging a problem is the first step to solving it. Good piece!
We are all liars because it is biological. Evolution is replete with deceit and each cheap trick works unless and until it doesn’t. Some smaller male fish mimic female fish to gain access to a nest and then let the dominant male raise their fry. Perhaps that kind scenario is at the root cause of drag queen aversion today.
At some point in human evolution the importance of societal gains to the benefit of the population governed the amount of deceit allowed in the wide open and the remnant of those strategies was forced inside us. It is not at all dormant. If a person does something because it makes them feel good does that make them a good person, or a person that has found away to feel good.
Who among us that believe we are not “one and done” would find themselves with a sense of moral authority when at least one tradition provides:
8 “For my thoughts are not your thoughts,
neither are your ways my ways,”
declares the Lord.
9 “As the heavens are higher than the earth,
so are my ways higher than your ways
and my thoughts than your thoughts.
This article made me think through why the Trump phenomenon disturbs me deeply. Until recently, spin was rampant but the pronouncements by leaders in media and politics had some connection to the truth. For example, the Trump tax cuts were claimed to be a major success before covid because federal tax revenue was higher than ever before. That observation about revenue was true, although it ignored the fact that the federal debt also grew at a high rate because of a record level of federal spending. Thus, we were subjected to misleading spin, but at least the spin was tethered to reality. Now, however, I fear that we have entered into a new paradigm. Fox News presented stories about Dominion Voting Systems that Fox knew were false. They have been shamed, yet they do not feel any need to correct the record. Trump benefits from making wild claims about voting fraud that are contradicted by evidence (re-counts of the November 2000 votes in Georgia, Arizona and elsewhere, for example). At the very least, we once paid lip service to the need for true information. Now, in US media and politics, spewing bull shit seemingly carries no penalty.
T’aint new to America. A name unknown to most was brought up recently when talking about the audience reach of Tucker Carlson. Some argued that the sainted Rush Limbaugh had a wider following, but at least one commentator pointed out that Father Charles Coughlin had a much larger share of radio listeners to his weekly broadcasts.
“During the 1930s, when the U.S. population was about 120 million, an estimated 30 million listeners tuned to his weekly broadcasts” Excerpted from the Wikipedia link.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Coughlin
He was a vocal proponent of the Jewish banker stuff one still sees on Q kind of group chatrooms.
January 6 showed me that Donald Trump could not change horses in midstream.
Default under trump would’ve been a noisy chaotic event.
The man is not a commander-in-chief.
A deplorable with a lot of money on a loudspeaker.
This has all been the most elaborate jury tampering, ever witnessed, but all politics is jury tampering.
I believe we are all addicts, we all have our monkey on our back and that’s the source of our penchant to harm others. It’s typically easier to see what someone else needs to keep their ‘good vibes’ rolling, whereas it’s very difficult to look directly at our own unique need for a fix. Our source material for ‘good’ and ‘bad’ judgements comes from our cognitive dissonance between ‘you’re evil and can be dismissed because you desperately need x’ and ‘I’m virtuous and deserve merit because I need y’.
So much to ponder here. I am 100% Russian speaking Jew from the Ukraine…..Attended Columbia(History and Economics Majors)with many required literature and philosophy and religion courses….My sister feels i am a cynic, which I rebut by saying things are worse than I think….1215: the rule of law instead of the rule of man….1590 faith without works is dead….