Taiwan, M2 And Other ‘Recession Now’ Canaries
Infallible or not, the yield curve is a cliché as a recession indicator.
Indeed, those pursuing originality in forecasting during the post-GFC era often engaged in an effort to explain why the curve is no longer the reliable prophet it once was. After all, a lot of the factors distorting developed market government bond curves weren't present decades ago.
As everyone with even a passing interest in markets knows, the US curve began predicting a downturn for the world's largest economy as earl