If you weren’t enamored with the advance read on Q1 GDP in the US, no one will blame you for being a bit disheartened.
It wasn’t a disaster by any stretch, but it did have stagflation vibes. The headline growth read was underwhelming and the prices gauges were hotter than expected.
I think it’s useful to highlight charts for three data points I mentioned in my initial coverage, but didn’t initially illustrate.
Equipment spending by businesses dropped the most since the US economy suffered an induced depression following the onset of the pandemic.
Excluding the COVID months and Q4 of 2019, Q1’s drop in equipment investment was the largest since the financial crisis.
Plainly, companies are concerned about the outlook, and that’s showing up in capex. As discussed at some length here last month, business spending may be on the brink of contracting sharply, particularly given recent developments in the banking system.
Moving quickly along, inventories weighed markedly on growth. In fact, the 2.26-percentage point drag was the third-largest in 18 years.
That effectively offset the boost from consumer spending.
Finally, and most worrisome for the Fed, the core PCE price gauge rose 4.9%, much quicker than expected.
As the simple chart shows, underlying price pressures are getting worse again.
Between still robust spending and elevated price growth, the inflation impulse isn’t likely to recede quickly, even if the broader economy slows.
So, elevated inflation and below-trend growth. There’s a term for that conjuncture.



