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IMF Warns On ‘Tricky,’ ‘Uncertain’ World As Risks Proliferate
The IMF's new World Economic Outlook (that's a proper noun) is here. Who's excited?
These regularly scheduled tomes are often billed as though they're akin to the latest episode of a viral Netflix series. In reality, traders don't generally care, and exactly no one reads the full report. The April edition clocked in at a truly impressive 206 pages. If you read the whole thing Tuesday, you're ChatGPT.
It was notable that the IMF doesn't see global growth returning to pre-COVID levels anytime in
I’m still old and as I remember a recession would be marked by negative growth, rather than just disappointing slow growth (1%, say).
Global risks have been a greater concern since February of last year when Putin invaded Ukraine. Germany changed radically after WWII. Eastern Europe and Ukraine and Russia are radically changing in real time with the war.
To me as an investor, global risks are the foul balls that bean you in the head when you’re sitting in the upper deck on the 3rd base line in a stadium filled with forty thousand people.
“ the entire world is one giant carry trade, just waiting to explode.”
I just don’t see how the Great Reset doesn’t happen. Financially and politically.
Essentially the Great Reset will lay the foundation for the political will to implement various UBI programs (Food stamps for everyone, monthly housing stipends, universal healthcare, etc). I understand that old school ideologies have no capacity to contextualize the moral imperative of UBI, but modern economies have essentially become math problems. Modern economies do not create enough wages for labor/consumers to live off of without systemic poverty for a growing portion of society. UBI is the only solution that I’ve come across.
Right now in any city you need to be a top 20% income earner to be a new entrant into the home owner class and in major cities you need to be top 5%. Rural communities are more affordable, but not by that much. This dynamic cannot last.