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Manufacturing Contraction — The Good Kind
If you were looking for a dovish macro print to support any "last hike" hopes you may be harboring for the Fed, America's marquee factory survey obliged on Monday.
At 46.3, ISM manufacturing missed estimates. The range was 45.7 to 48.5 from more than five-dozen economists.
It was the lowest headline print since May of 2020, and considered with recent gains for US equities, stocks look disconnected.
As ever, I'd caution against reading too much into that visual -- it's apples to oranges, but
No drama but the forward looking measures of the economy keep printing weaker. Opec’s move is to try to prevent a glut, it is as much defensive as offensive. There is a lot of happy talk out there but it is based on looking in the rear view mirror. I don’t expect a disaster, but a recession with disinflation looks like it’s baked in the cake. I also believe the fomc will be cutting rates by sometime in q3 this year.
based on H’s last visual – SP vs ISM mfg – can anybody explain the seeming divergence in trend? Seems SP trending up, ISM opposite. Any clues?