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No Bank Panic In Michigan Poll. But Recession Vibes Unmistakable
A trio of bank failures had "limited impact on consumer sentiment" this month, Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan survey, said Friday.
That's the good news. The bad news is that consumer moods were already deteriorating in early March prior to the implosion of SVB and the ensuing melee.
At the least, banking sector stress eroded sentiment at the margins, and indeed the headline index printed 62 in the final reading, down from the preliminary print and below estimates.
It was
With the last the pandemic era programs/policies (Expanded Snap, Student loans moratorium, Expanded Medicare, etc) coming to an end 25-40% (hard to know exactly how those Venn diagrams overlap) of Americans financial paradigms have shifted materially. I doubt that is fully captured in te Mich survey yet. I expect next month to be even worse. I do expect things to level off over the summer though. Granted leveling isn’t necessarily = a good outcome.
Seems like Goldman was splitting the baby between Hartnett’s discussion of the different outcomes if past outcomes (LTCM v Bear Stearns) are in our future.
Looking forward to the new monthly article – April has arrived and the new service is absolutely worth the price of admission. Appreciate the extra writing, H.