Bank Stress May Eliminate Key Source Of US Jobs Overshoot

Over the past six months, nonfarm payroll growth in the US overshot the typical pre-COVID pace by an average of 150,000. Discretionary consumer services hiring accounted for half of that overshoot. That's a significant data point on its own, and I could editorialize around it all day from various vantage points. It speaks, for example, directly to some of the dynamics discussed here on Tuesday in "Layoffs Won’t Solve This Inflation Problem." But it's particularly notable in the context of re