Deutsche Bank In Spotlight As CDS Blows Out, Shares Dive

Never a dull moment.

Banking crisis headlines enveloped Deutsche Bank on Friday, when sharp moves in the shares and CDS precipitated the usual social media cacophony and accompanying five-alarm coverage blaze at mainstream financial news outlets.

The bank’s senior CDS ballooned to the widest since introduction four years ago.

To state the obvious, the jump illustrated in the figure is notable for being abrupt. On Thursday, Boaz Weinstein flagged “violent” moves across European bank subordinated CDS, which he attributed to “counterparty hedging” and weakness in bonds.

On Friday, Deutsche Bank said it intended to redeem a tier 2 subordinated note early. The note in question had fallen by as much as eight cents since the failure of SVB, and was still indicated at around 94 cents when Deutsche Bank unexpectedly announced its redemption intention. Today is March 24. The notes are callable on May 24. The terms stipulate that Deutsche Bank could’ve made the announcement 60 days in advance. So, the announcement was apparently made as soon as it was possible to do so.

That plainly suggests Deutsche Bank intended to shore up confidence, and the bond in question obviously rose back near face value. For what it’s worth, tier 2 subordinated debt wouldn’t generally be vulnerable to the same (mis?)treatment suffered by Credit Suisse’s now infamous CoCos. The tier 2 notes rank above AT1s. To lapse briefly into colloquialisms, the whole bank would have to fail, basically, for the tier 2 notes to get hit.

But, investors are understandably concerned about all subordinated bank debt now+. Efforts on the part of European officials to reassure bondholders that Credit Suisse’s AT1s were the exception, not the rule, met with little success.

In any event, confidence is shaky right now, and notwithstanding what, at long last, does (or at least did) look like a turning point for the firm, Deutsche Bank is a veritable magnet for speculative derision.

Although European bank shares were weaker pretty much across the board Friday, Deutsche Bank was down the most.

In remarks to a conference on Thursday, a member of the bank’s management board described Deutsche’s retail deposit base as “very diversified.”

The same executive emphasized that the Credit Suisse situation wasn’t indicative of the overall health of European banks.


 

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7 thoughts on “Deutsche Bank In Spotlight As CDS Blows Out, Shares Dive

    1. Admittedly, I’m less-than-enamored with the prospect of Reddit trying to orchestrate SIFI runs. In my opinion, that’s not something that should be countenanced.

  1. This could get out of hand for the Fed and the ECB really fast. Look at how some US banks are trading, BoA is a large “safer” institution yet it trades like the kiss of death, panic moves fast, if DB goes I’m not sure how regulators stop the dominoes.

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