Russia lobbed missiles into Ukraine on Friday and attacked the country with drones which, sadly, isn’t new and thereby wouldn’t be news (with an “s”) despite representing yet another horrifically tragic day for the country’s beleaguered populace.
What was new (and thereby news) were allegations that some of the missiles crossed into NATO airspace.
According to Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, commander in chief of the Ukrainian military, a pair of Russian Kalibr missiles launched from the Black Sea flew through Romania, and also Moldova, on their way to Ukraine.
There was no immediate confirmation from Romania, but Moldova summoned the Russian ambassador after releasing a statement on the incident. “A missile crossed the airspace of the Republic of Moldova, over the town of Mocra in the Transnistrian region and, later, over the town of Cosauti in the Soroca district, heading towards Ukraine,” the country’s defense ministry said, adding that it “strongly condemns” the violation of its airspace.
For those unfamiliar, Transnistria is, as The New York Times put it in an oddly nostalgic piece last year, “a mini-Russia” — a separatist breakaway “island of pro-Moscow Russian speakers, hundreds of miles from Russia itself.” The Kremlin maintains a small number of troops there, and explosions in Transnistria last April raised concerns that Vladimir Putin might attempt to formally seize the region, which is self-governing but not internationally recognized.
Eventually, Romania said that although its surveillance systems did in fact identify an apparent cruise missile fired from a Russian ship close to Crimea, it didn’t cross into Romanian airspace. “The Romanian Air Force’s surveillance system detected on Friday an air target, most likely a cruise missile launched from a Russian ship in the Black Sea,” a statement said, adding that “The closest the target trajectory got to Romania’s airspace was recorded by the radar at roughly 35 kms northeast of the border.”
It matters quite a bit which story is correct. Russian cruise missiles flying over Transnistria is one thing. Russian cruise missiles in NATO airspace over Romania is another entirely, even if the distinction is trivial in a strict geographic sense that ignores manmade borders.
A spokesman for Ukraine’s air force said Kyiv could’ve shot the missiles down over Romania and Moldova, but refrained due to the risk posed by falling debris for the “populations of a foreign state.”
I think it’s fair to say Kyiv wouldn’t be upset if Russian missiles did inadvertently cross into NATO airspace. That’s the sort of incursion which, were it confirmed, could argue for a no fly zone. There wouldn’t be much in the way of patience for wayward Kremlin projectiles kissing alliance skies, and I’d note that airborne autocratic incursions into democratic airspace is a sensitive subject right now.
Moldova didn’t (or wouldn’t) say whether its tracking systems suggested the missiles crossed into Romania. Zelensky advisor Mykhailo Podolyak, whose patriotism and commitment to defending Ukraine has manifested in at least one apparent falsehood over the course of the conflict (he claimed Ukraine had nothing to do with the assassination of Daria Dugina, a contention that didn’t line up well with subsequent reporting by the Times), called on Friday for the West to arm Ukraine to the teeth.
“Russia has been striking at Ukrainian cities all night and morning,” he said. “Enough talk. Only fast key decisions: Long-range missiles, fighter jets and operational supplies logistics for Ukraine.”
The US has, understandably, always had a difficult time drawing a “line in the sand” on both international and domestic issues. Part of the US foreign policy includes “hope” that the rest of the world will look to the “success” of the US model and want to emulate our US model.
It is, therefore, not surprising that things are going the way that they are.